10 April 2014

2014- n° 84

The Consumer Prices Index increased by 0.4% in March 2014; it rose by 0.6%, year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - March 2014

In March 2014, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% (after +0.6% in February 2014). Compared with March 2013, it grew by 0.6% (down from +0.9%, year-on-year in February 2014). Excluding tobacco, the CPI increased by 0.5% in March 2014 and also by 0.5% year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted, the CPI was down 0.1% in March 2014. As in February 2014, the increase in the CPI in March 2014 came from the recovery in manufactured product prices after the period of sales, especially from its impact on clothing and footwear prices, and from seasonal pressures in service prices linked with the winter vacation period. On the other hand, energy prices and, in a lesser manner, food prices showed downward trends.

Following the end of the sale periods in most of the French departments, the prices of manufactured products bounced back (+1,3% in March 2014; +2.0% in March 2013). In particular, the prices of clothing and footwear climbed (+10.2% in March 2014; +12.2% in March 2013). There was also a smaller upward contribution from the sale end on other manufactured product prices in March 2014 : the prices of furniture and furnishing increased by 0.9% (+1.3% year-on-year), those of sport equipment, camping and open-air recreation by 3.7% (—1.0% year-on-year), those of travel goods by 3.5% (+1.5% year-on-year) and those of household appliances by 0.4% (—2.0% year-on-year). On the contrary, the prices of audiovisual, photographic and information processing equipment (—0.6%, —7.2% year-on-year) as those of health product (—0.4%; —3.0% year-on-year) continued to decline. Moreover, as a result of promotions, the prices of new cars fell by 1.8% in March 2014 (+1.7% year-on-year). Finally, in March 2014, the prices of manufactured products decreased by 0.8% compared with the same month one year ago.

In March 2014, the prices of services increased by 0.3% (+1.8% year-on-year, down from +1.9% in February 2014) mainly due to the changes in some service prices linked with the vacation period. Thus, the prices of package holidays grew by 8.3% in march 2014 (—1.3% year-on-year); those of rents for holiday homes by 5.5% (+2.7% year-on-year), those of hotels and restaurants by 1.2% (+2.9% year-on-year). On the opposite, there was a downward contribution from the prices of transport services between February and March this year in the wake of a fall of air transport

fares (—2.2%; —5.0% year-on-year). Moreover, if the prices of mobile phone services have slightly declined again in March 2014 (—0.1% as in February 2014), they sped up year-on-year (+3.1% in March 2014 up from +2.9% in february 2014).

In March 2014, energy prices of energy were down 0.6% compared with February 2014 and by 1.6% compared with march 2013. The main downward effect came from a new decrease in petroleum product prices (—0.8% in March 2014; —6.0% year-on-year), higher for heating fuels (—1.6% in March 2014; —7.8% year-on-year) than for motor fuels (—0.7%; —5.9% year-on-year). There was also a downward contribution from city gas prices which decreased by 1.2% in March 2014 (—0.3% year-on-year) while electricity prices remained unchanged (+7.5% year-on-year).

Food prices increased by 0.2% in March 2014, mostly due to the seasonal rebound in fresh foodstuff prices (+1.2%), and especially from the large increase in fresh fruit prices (+5.1% in March 2014; +4,2% in March 2013; —2.0% betwwen March 2013 and March 2014) while the prices of fresh vegetables were flat (—0.1% in March 2014; —6.2% compared with the same month one year ago). In the year to March 2014, fresh foodstuff prices fell by 3.3% as supply was spurred by favourable weather conditions in recent months. Excluding fresh foodstuffs, food prices remained broadly stable in March 2014 (+0.3% year-on-year, as in February 2014). However, this relative stability conceals significant changes in prices trends, in particular, a recovery of dairy product prices (+0.8% in March 2014 for the group Milk, eggs and cheese and +0.8% compared with the same month one year ago), a decline in bread and cereal prices (—0.2%; —0.3% year-on-year) or a slowdown of meat prices (—0.2% in march 2014; +1.2% year-on-year). Finally, food prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in March 2014.

In March 2014, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) increased by 0.1% and by 0.4% year-on-year (+0.7% in March 2013). The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew by 0.5% in March 2014 and by 0.7% compared with March 2013 (+1.1% year-on-year in March 2013).