25 November 2013

2013- n° 264

In November 2013, the business climate in manufacturing industry remains stable Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2013

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2013, the business climate in industry remains stable. The composite indicator is unchanged and stays at 98, a level reached in August, close to its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator slips compared to October but keeps indicating a favorable cyclical economic outlook dynamic in the manufacturing industry.

The balance of opinion on past change in production keeps increasing and is now above its long-term average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on personal production expectation drops again and it henceforth stands at a level below its long-term average.

Global and export order books are almost unchanged compared to the previous month and their levels are still described as low by business managers.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, decreases, stopping the rise started since April. Its level is again below its long-term average. Finally, stocks of finished products rise and their level is considered as normal.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity grows dramatically and stands above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are stable and are considered above their normal level. Export and global order books improve and the corresponding balances of opinion are close to their long-term average. The balance on expected activity goes down, remaining near its long-term level.

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity improves: the corresponding balance is close to its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are still considered higher than their normal level. As for the order books, the industrialists of this sector consider that they are still very low, despite a slight rise in the balances of opinion. Manufacturers are more optimistic about their production expectations.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance of opinion on past activity increases moderately and stands again above its average level. More industrialists of this sector are optimistic about their expected production: the corresponding balance goes up markedly. Export order books are considered as normal while global order books improve and are now described above their average level. As for the finished-goods inventory level, it is nearly stable and is considered below its normal level.

In November, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the past activity is steady, below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products increase sharply and are considered significantly higher than their normal level. Global and foreign order books decline compared to October: they are both considered bad supplied. According to the industrials of this area, activity would stay very dynamic over the next months.

According to the business managers, the past activity increases dramatically in the manufacture of chemicals, pharmaceutical products and rubber and plastic products and remains favourably oriented in the manufacture of basic metals. On the contrary, the production expectations over the next months drop in all sectors and stand below their long-term averages. Regarding the level of global and export order books, they are described again as unusually low in all sectors. Finally, the finished-goods inventory increases in the manufacture of chemicals and basic metals, is steady in the one of rubber and plastic products and goes down in the one of pharmaceutical products. In all sectors, the stock level is below its long-term average.