In November 2013, the business climate in manufacturing industry remains stableMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2013

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2013, the business climate in industry remains stable. The composite indicator is unchanged and stays at 98, a level reached in August, close to its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 264
Paru le : 25/11/2013
Prochaine parution le : 26/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2013, the business climate in industry remains stable. The composite indicator is unchanged and stays at 98, a level reached in August, close to its long-term average.

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator slips compared to October but keeps indicating a favorable cyclical economic outlook dynamic in the manufacturing industry.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production keeps increasing and is now above its long-term average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on personal production expectation drops again and it henceforth stands at a level below its long-term average.

Global and export order books are almost unchanged compared to the previous month and their levels are still described as low by business managers.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, decreases, stopping the rise started since April. Its level is again below its long-term average. Finally, stocks of finished products rise and their level is considered as normal.

tableau1 – Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) Aug. 13 Sept. 13 Oct. 13 Nov. 13
Composite indicator (2) 100 98 97 98 98
Past activity 4 4 –11 –1 8
Finished-goods inventory 13 12 12 10 13
Global order books –18 –22 –26 –24 –23
Export order books –14 –22 –21 –21 –21
Personal production expectations 5 3 13 8 1
General production expectations –9 –18 –10 –6 –16
  • (1) Average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity grows dramatically and stands above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are stable and are considered above their normal level. Export and global order books improve and the corresponding balances of opinion are close to their long-term average. The balance on expected activity goes down, remaining near its long-term level.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICAL EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity improves: the corresponding balance is close to its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are still considered higher than their normal level. As for the order books, the industrialists of this sector consider that they are still very low, despite a slight rise in the balances of opinion. Manufacturers are more optimistic about their production expectations.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance of opinion on past activity increases moderately and stands again above its average level. More industrialists of this sector are optimistic about their expected production: the corresponding balance goes up markedly. Export order books are considered as normal while global order books improve and are now described above their average level. As for the finished-goods inventory level, it is nearly stable and is considered below its normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In November, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the past activity is steady, below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products increase sharply and are considered significantly higher than their normal level. Global and foreign order books decline compared to October: they are both considered bad supplied. According to the industrials of this area, activity would stay very dynamic over the next months.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

According to the business managers, the past activity increases dramatically in the manufacture of chemicals, pharmaceutical products and rubber and plastic products and remains favourably oriented in the manufacture of basic metals. On the contrary, the production expectations over the next months drop in all sectors and stand below their long-term averages. Regarding the level of global and export order books, they are described again as unusually low in all sectors. Finally, the finished-goods inventory increases in the manufacture of chemicals and basic metals, is steady in the one of rubber and plastic products and goes down in the one of pharmaceutical products. In all sectors, the stock level is below its long-term average.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Sept. 13 Oct. 13 Nov. 13
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 –8 –5 13
Finished-goods inventory 12 18 18 18
Global order books –18 –24 –22 –18
Export order books –13 –20 –23 –15
Personal production expectations 7 6 10 5
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 5 –19 –17 2
Finished-goods inventory 17 30 26 24
Global order books –23 –41 –44 –40
Export order books –21 –43 –44 –40
Personal production expectations 3 –12 –10 –1
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 7 –20 24 21
Finished-goods inventory 14 6 5 24
Global order books –14 –24 –2 –3
Export order books –12 –10 –12 –13
Personal production expectations 7 32 37 33
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 2 –68 20 26
Finished-goods inventory 10 –3 –3 –1
Global order books –20 –46 –23 5
Export order books –14 –16 –20 –14
Personal production expectations 2 20 27 48
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 5 9 7
Finished-goods inventory 20 14 13 49
Global order books –6 –2 19 –12
Export order books –9 –4 –4 –12
Personal production expectations 14 46 33 36
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 –4 0 9
Finished-goods inventory 11 5 2 3
Global order books –20 –29 –32 –27
Export order books –13 –18 –19 –19
Personal production expectations 4 4 8 –8
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 –18 –3 12
Finished-goods inventory 7 3 –4 4
Global order books –13 –16 –26 –20
Export order books –8 –17 –19 –21
Personal production expectations 14 20 16 11
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 17 –7 –10 50
Finished-goods inventory 10 2 13 5
Global order books 4 –9 –8 –3
Export order books 10 –7 –4 –6
Personal production expectations 15 10 41 –34
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 –19 –27 –10
Finished-goods inventory 11 11 7 7
Global order books –24 –45 –37 –43
Export order books –18 –29 –34 –36
Personal production expectations –1 –2 –3 –11
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 5 12 12
Finished-goods inventory 7 4 –4 3
Global order books –20 –37 –36 –34
Export order books –16 –17 –19 –14
Personal production expectations 1 5 12 –6
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe
  • of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee