14 November 2013

2013- n° 261

The Consumer Prices Index decreased by 0.1% in October 2013; it rose by 0.6% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - October 2013

In October 2013, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% after a decrease of 0.2% in September 2013. The CPI slowed down : in the year to October 2013 it grew by 0.6%, down from +0.9%, year–on–year, in August and September 2013. It was its lowest annual rate of change from November 2009. Excluding tobacco, the CPI also decreased by 0.1% in October 2013 and increased by 0.5% compared with the same month one year ago.

The largest contributions to the CPI decline in October 2013 came from a substantial decrease in energy prices, especially from petroleum products, and in a lesser extent, from a slight decline of food prices. Conversely, service prices were up very slightly in October 2013 while, overall, those of manufactured goods were stable. In addition, while they increased substantially in October last year, tobacco prices were unchanged this year in October. They grew by 3.5% in October 2013 compared with the same month one year ago, down from +10.5% in September 2013 compared with September 2012.

After an increase during the three latest months, energy prices declined significantly in October 2013 (—1.7%; —0.4% in the year to October 2013) due to a fall of the prices of petroleum products (—2.9%, —4.1% year–on–year). In October 2013, the decreases in prices for heating fuels (—3.0%; —6.2% year on year) and for motor fuels (—3.0%; —4.0% year on year) were on the same scale. The city gas prices were almost stable in October 2013 (+0.1%; +0.8% year–on–year), while those of electricity were unchanged (+7.5% compared with the same month one year ago).

The food prices declined slightly again in October 2013 (—0.1% after —0.5% in September 2013; +0.2 % compared with the same month one year ago). For the fresh foodstuffs (—0.1% in October 2013, —2.4% year-on-year), this slight decline resulted broadly from a drop in the prices of fresh vegetables (—6.1%; —7.5% year–on–year), while the prices of fresh fruits rose in October 2013 (+6.3%; +0.8% year–on–year). Conversely, the prices of fresh fishes and shellfishes decreased seasonally (—1.2%; +2.1% year–on–year).

Overall, if the decline in the prices of food (excluding fresh foodstuffs) was weak in October 2013 (—0.1%; + 0.6% year-on-year), it was sharper for some categories : the prices of non-alcoholic beverages dropped by 0.3% (—2.1% year–on–year) as the milk and cream prices did (—0.5% year–on–year) while those of preserved pastry goods and cakes and those of prepared vegetables decreased by 0.6% in October 2013 (respectively —1.9% and —1.4% year–on–year).

Service prices increased slightly in October 2013 (+0.1%; +1.4% year–on–year). Like every year in October, one of the most significant upward contribution to the change in the service CPI was due to the application of winter rates for collective heating. In addition, some price increases, also seasonal, were observed in October 2013 for airfares (+4.6%, —1.6% year–on–year) and for health services (+0.5%, +0.4%). On the opposite, the most significant downward pressure of the service CPI came from the seasonal decrease in the rents of residence for holidays, restaurant and hotel prices in October 2013. Furthermore, the telecommunication tariffs increased again in October 2013 (+0.7%; —2.8% compared with the same month one year ago).

In October 2013, the prices of manufactured products remained broadly steady (—0.5% compared with the same month one year ago). Overall, the prices of clothing and footwear slowed down (+0.1%; +0.7% yea–on–year after +0.9% in September 2013) while those of clothing reduced in October 2013 (—0.1%; +0.5% year–on–year). The prices of health products were stable but have pursued their decline year–on–year (—3.0%). Finally, the sluggish prices of the other manufactured goods hid different developments according to the categories of product : the seasonnal decline in prices of flowers and plants (—5.4%; +5.5% year on year) was offset by the end of promotions for new cars (+1.2%; +2.4% year–on–year).

The core inflation indicator (ISJ) was stable during the three latest months in October 2013 but its annual rate of change grew slightly for reaching +0.7% after +0.6%, in September 2013. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined by 0.1% in October 2013; it increased by 0.7% year–on–year after +1.0% in September and August 2013, its lowest rate from November 2009.