In Q2 2013 GDP picked up (+0.5%) Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 2nd quarter 2013

In Q2 2013, GDP in volume terms* rose by 0.5% after a 0.2% fall in each of the two previous quarters. It’s been the largest increase since Q1 2011. The annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point is +0,1%.

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Informations rapides – No 186
Paru le : 08/14/2013
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In Q2 2013, GDP in volume terms* rose by 0.5% after a 0.2% fall in each of the two previous quarters. It’s been the largest increase since Q1 2011. The annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point is +0,1%.

Household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.4% after –0.1%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again, but less sharply than in the beginning of the year (–0.5% after –1.0%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contributed to GDP acceleration: +0.3 percentage points in Q2, after –0.1 points in the previous quarter.

Both exports (+2.0% after –0.5%) and imports (+1.9% after +0.1%) rebounded. Consequently, the external trade balance made a neutral accounting contribution to GDP growth this quarter (after a contribution of –0.2 points).

Changes in inventories made a positive contribution to activity growth again: +0.2 points, after +0.1 points in Q1 2013.

Production became dynamic anew

In Q2 2013, total production of goods and services strongly accelerated: +0.9% after 0.0%. Production of manufactured goods accelerated (+2.0% after +0.2%), driven by a rebound in transport equipment production (+8.2% after –1.0%), specifically in the automotive and aircraft industries. Activity grew in all the other manufacturing sectors. Production of tradable services accelerated as well (+0.7% after 0.0%), notably in the business services.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES

percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES
2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1
Imports -0.1 -1.2 0.1 1.9 -0.9 0.5
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.3
GFCF -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -2.3
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.1 -1.9 -2.1
Households -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -1.7 -0.4 -3.6
General government -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 0.1 -0.6 -1.3
Exports 0.2 -0.7 -0.5 2.0 2.5 0.6
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0
Inventory changes 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.1
Net foreign trade 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 28.5 28.1 28.2   28.3  
    Household purchasing power -0.2 -0.9 0.9   -0.9 0.2
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – GDP and components : prices indices

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    GDP and components : prices indices
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    GDP 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.5 1.4
    Imports 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 1.9 -1.1
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - Households 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.9 0.5
    - GG* 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.4
    Total GFCF 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.7 0.7
    - of which Households -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 0.6
    - of which NFE 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.3 0.9
    - of which GG 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.6
    Exports 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 1.2 0.1
    • *GG: General Government

    Tab4 – Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    Industrie’s production 1.2 -2.0 0.2 2.0 -2.8 0.3
    - of which value added 0.7 -1.6 -0.3 1.1 -2.0 -0.6
    Imports -1.3 -1.3 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.2
    Intermediate uses 0.6 -1.1 -0.2 1.4 -1.8 0.0
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - of households 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.4 -1.2 -0.7
    - of GG 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.3 4.3 4.6
    Total GFCF -0.5 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -3.0 -3.5
    - of which NFC -0.6 -2.0 -1.5 -0.8 -3.7 -4.1
    - of which GG -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 -0.2
    Exports 0.8 -1.3 -0.5 2.9 3.0 1.1
    Inventory changes (contribution) -0.6 -0.7 1.1 0.4 -2.5 0.5

      Tab5 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
      HDI -0.1 -0.7 1.2   0.9 0.8
      Household purchasing power -0.2 -0.9 0.9 -0.9 0.2
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.4 -1.0 0.8 -1.5 -0.2
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.4 0.3
      Saving rate (level) 15.8 15.0 15.9 15.6  
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.4 5.7 6.7   6.2  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab6 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012
      Profit share 28.5 28.1 28.2   28.3
      Investment ratio 19.3 19.2 19.0   19.4
      Savings ratio 13.0 12.0 12.6   12.8
      Self-financing ratio 67.3 62.8 66.0   65.9

        Households consumption expenditures recovered

        In Q2 2013, household consumption expenditure rose anew (+0.4% after –0.1%). Energy expenses remained dynamic (+2.4% after +2.0%), driven up by spring temperatures below their seasonal norms. Car purchases have picked up (+2.1% after –5.5%) for the first time since the end of 2011. Meanwhile, clothing expenses decreased again (–2.4% after –2.2%) and expenditure on food products declined (–1.2% after +1.0%). As far as services are concerned, consumption rose moderately (+0.3% after –0.1%), with a notable recovering in the accommodation and food services sector.

        Investment decreased less sharply

        After four quarters of decline in 2012 and a sharp decrease in the beginning of 2013 (–1.0%), GFCF declined more moderately in the second quarter (–0.5%). Non-financial corporations investment remained almost stable (–0.1% after –0.9%). Particularly, their expenses on services picked up (+0.4% after –0.6%). Public administrations investment remained sluggish (+0.1% after –0.6%). In contrast, household GFCF decreased sharply again (–1.7% after –1.4%), notably their expenditure on housing .

        External trade bounced back

        In Q2 2013, imports accelerated (+1.9% after +0.1% in the beginning of 2013), and so did the exports (+2.0% after –0.5%). The acceleration of the exchanges concerned almost all goods, more particularly purchases and sales of transport equipment. As a result, the accounting contribution of external trade was neutral this quarter, after a –0.2 points contribution in the first quarter.

        Changes in inventories contributed positively to the GDP growth

        Companies changes in inventories again contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.2 points after +0.1 points in Q1). This particularly concerned the transport equipment sector.

        Revisions

        Revisions of the previous quarters are of limited size, and the decrease of GDP in Q4 2012 (–0.2%) and Q1 2013 (–0.2%) are confirmed. Small revisions are mainly due to the update of the seasonal adjustment factors.