Informations rapides
14 August 2013
2013 - n° 186
In Q2 2013 GDP picked up (+0.5%) Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 2nd quarter 2013

In Q2 2013, GDP in volume terms* rose by 0.5% after a 0.2% fall in each of the two previous quarters. It’s been the largest increase since Q1 2011. The annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point is +0,1%.

Informations rapides
No 186
Paru le : Paru le 14/08/2013

In Q2 2013, GDP in volume terms* rose by 0.5% after a 0.2% fall in each of the two previous quarters. It’s been the largest increase since Q1 2011. The annual growth rate carried over at the mid-year point is +0,1%.

Household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.4% after –0.1%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again, but less sharply than in the beginning of the year (–0.5% after –1.0%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contributed to GDP acceleration: +0.3 percentage points in Q2, after –0.1 points in the previous quarter.

Both exports (+2.0% after –0.5%) and imports (+1.9% after +0.1%) rebounded. Consequently, the external trade balance made a neutral accounting contribution to GDP growth this quarter (after a contribution of –0.2 points).

Changes in inventories made a positive contribution to activity growth again: +0.2 points, after +0.1 points in Q1 2013.

Production became dynamic anew

In Q2 2013, total production of goods and services strongly accelerated: +0.9% after 0.0%. Production of manufactured goods accelerated (+2.0% after +0.2%), driven by a rebound in transport equipment production (+8.2% after –1.0%), specifically in the automotive and aircraft industries. Activity grew in all the other manufacturing sectors. Production of tradable services accelerated as well (+0.7% after 0.0%), notably in the business services.

Graph1GDP and its main components

Tab1GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES

percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
GOODS AND SERVICES: SUPPLY AND USES CHAIN-LINKED VOLUMES (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1
Imports -0.1 -1.2 0.1 1.9 -0.9 0.5
Households' consumption *expenditure 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.3
GFCF -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -2.3
*of which Non financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.1 -1.9 -2.1
Households -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -1.7 -0.4 -3.6
General government -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 0.1 -0.6 -1.3
Exports 0.2 -0.7 -0.5 2.0 2.5 0.6
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0
Inventory changes 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.1
Net foreign trade 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0

    Tab2Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 28.5 28.1 28.2   28.3  
    Household purchasing power -0.2 -0.9 0.9   -0.9 0.2
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3GDP and components : prices indices

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    GDP and components : prices indices (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    GDP 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.5 1.4
    Imports 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 1.9 -1.1
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - Households 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.9 0.5
    - GG* 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.4
    Total GFCF 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.7 0.7
    - of which Households -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 0.6
    - of which NFE 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.3 0.9
    - of which GG 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.6
    Exports 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 1.2 0.1
    • *GG: General Government

    Tab4Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume

    percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
    Manufactured goods : supply and uses in volume (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
    2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
    Industrie’s production 1.2 -2.0 0.2 2.0 -2.8 0.3
    - of which value added 0.7 -1.6 -0.3 1.1 -2.0 -0.6
    Imports -1.3 -1.3 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.2
    Intermediate uses 0.6 -1.1 -0.2 1.4 -1.8 0.0
    Cons. Exp. :      
    - of households 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.4 -1.2 -0.7
    - of GG 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.3 4.3 4.6
    Total GFCF -0.5 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -3.0 -3.5
    - of which NFC -0.6 -2.0 -1.5 -0.8 -3.7 -4.1
    - of which GG -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 -0.2
    Exports 0.8 -1.3 -0.5 2.9 3.0 1.1
    Inventory changes (contribution) -0.6 -0.7 1.1 0.4 -2.5 0.5

      Tab5Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
      2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012 2013 (ovhg)
      HDI -0.1 -0.7 1.2   0.9 0.8
      Household purchasing power -0.2 -0.9 0.9 -0.9 0.2
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.4 -1.0 0.8 -1.5 -0.2
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.4 0.3
      Saving rate (level) 15.8 15.0 15.9 15.6  
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.4 5.7 6.7   6.2  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab6Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account (percentage change from previous period,trading-days and seasonally adjusted data) -
      2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2012
      Profit share 28.5 28.1 28.2   28.3
      Investment ratio 19.3 19.2 19.0   19.4
      Savings ratio 13.0 12.0 12.6   12.8
      Self-financing ratio 67.3 62.8 66.0   65.9

        Households consumption expenditures recovered

        In Q2 2013, household consumption expenditure rose anew (+0.4% after –0.1%). Energy expenses remained dynamic (+2.4% after +2.0%), driven up by spring temperatures below their seasonal norms. Car purchases have picked up (+2.1% after –5.5%) for the first time since the end of 2011. Meanwhile, clothing expenses decreased again (–2.4% after –2.2%) and expenditure on food products declined (–1.2% after +1.0%). As far as services are concerned, consumption rose moderately (+0.3% after –0.1%), with a notable recovering in the accommodation and food services sector.

        Investment decreased less sharply

        After four quarters of decline in 2012 and a sharp decrease in the beginning of 2013 (–1.0%), GFCF declined more moderately in the second quarter (–0.5%). Non-financial corporations investment remained almost stable (–0.1% after –0.9%). Particularly, their expenses on services picked up (+0.4% after –0.6%). Public administrations investment remained sluggish (+0.1% after –0.6%). In contrast, household GFCF decreased sharply again (–1.7% after –1.4%), notably their expenditure on housing .

        External trade bounced back

        In Q2 2013, imports accelerated (+1.9% after +0.1% in the beginning of 2013), and so did the exports (+2.0% after –0.5%). The acceleration of the exchanges concerned almost all goods, more particularly purchases and sales of transport equipment. As a result, the accounting contribution of external trade was neutral this quarter, after a –0.2 points contribution in the first quarter.

        Changes in inventories contributed positively to the GDP growth

        Companies changes in inventories again contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.2 points after +0.1 points in Q1). This particularly concerned the transport equipment sector.

        Revisions

        Revisions of the previous quarters are of limited size, and the decrease of GDP in Q4 2012 (–0.2%) and Q1 2013 (–0.2%) are confirmed. Small revisions are mainly due to the update of the seasonal adjustment factors.

        Documentation

        Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)

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