6 February 2014

2014- n° 32

According to business leaders, in the manufacturing industry, investment will slightly increase in 2014 Industrial investment survey - January 2014

Surveyed in January 2014, business managers estimated that investment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 7% in 2013, in line with their previous expectations given last October.

For 2014, business managers in the manufacturing industry forecast that their investment will increase by 3% compared to 2013. They revised 5 points upwards their previous expectations given in October. This revision upwards concerns all sectors except the sector of the manufacture of transport equipment (–7 points). In the manufacture of food products and beverages, they revised upwards by 1 points, in the sector of electrical and electronic and machine equipment by 5 points and in the sector of other manufacturing by 8 points. In these sectors, the upturn is reached after a decrease in investment in 2013. In transport equipment, business managers anticipated a decline in investment in 2014, but this decrease will lessen (-4% after –12% in 2013). In the sector of motor vehicles, this easing is stronger (-2% after –22%).

Between H1 and H2 2013, industrial leaders state an increase in their investment, in line with their previous expectations given last July. From now on, between H1 2014 and H2 2013, business managers anticipate an increase in their investment.

The investment revision indicator takes off and is close to 1, its standard deviation. Based on investment amounts reported in at each survey by business leaders of the manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That suggests a rise of investment of these enterprises during Q1 2014.