23 October 2013

2013- n° 240

In October 2013, the business climate in manufacturing industry is nearly steady Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2013

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2013, the business climate in industry is nearly steady. The composite indicator increases by one point compared with the previous month and reaches again its August’s level.

Compared with the previous month, the turning-point indicator is nearly stable and keeps indicating a favorable cyclical economic outlook dynamic in the manufacturing industry.

The balance of opinion on past change in production rebunds markedly but stands still below its long-term average. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on personal production expectation weakens and stands at a level still above its long-term average.

Global and export order books improve slightly compared with the previous month but are still described as below their average level.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, keeps going up. For the first time since July 2011, the level is now above its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products are nearly stable and their level is considered slightly below the normal level.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity is steady and stands below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are nearly stable and are considered above their normal level. Export and global order books are described as low supplied. The balance on expected activity goes up and is slightly above its long-term level.

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity remains deteriorated: the corresponding balance is steady at a level very below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products decrease but are still considered higher than their normal level. As for the order books, the industrialists of this sector consider that they are still very low. Manufacturers are still pessimistic about their production expectations.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity increases strongly, compared with September, and stands again above its average level. More industrialists of this sector are optimistic about their expected production: the corresponding balance goes up markedly. Global and export order books are now described as near to their average level. As for the finished-goods inventory level, it is nearly stable and is considered less than its normal level.

In October, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the past activity goes up but is still below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products are nearly stable and are considered below their normal level. While global order books are getting better strongly, foreign order books are steady compared with September: they are both considered good supplied. In spite of a decrease in the personal production expectations, the activity would stay dynamic over the next months.

According to the business managers, the past activity is considered again deteriorated in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in the one of rubber and plastic products, and improved in the manufacture of chemicals and in the one of basic metals. The production expectations in the next months improve or remain favourably oriented in all sectors, except for the manufacture of rubber and plastic products in which the corresponding balance weakens and is below its long-term average. In all sectors, the level of global and export order books is still described as unusually low. While the finished-goods inventory increase in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products, they go down in the three other sectors.