11 February 2010
2010- n° 42According to business managers, investment in manufacturing industry would increase
slightly in 2010 Industrial investment survey - January 2010
Surveyed in January 2010, business managers estimate that in 2009 investment dropped by 27% in manufacturing industry and 25% in the industry as a whole. They revised downwards by 3 points their previous estimations of October 2009. This downwards’ revision is mainly due to the intermediate-goods industry (from –33% to –37%) and to the consumer-goods industry (from –13% to –17%).
Surveyed in January 2010, business managers estimate that in 2009 investment dropped by 27% in manufacturing industry and 25% in the industry as a whole. They revised downwards by 3 points their previous estimations of October 2009. This downwards’ revision is mainly due to the intermediate-goods industry (from –33% to –37%) and to the consumer-goods industry (from –13% to –17%).
graphiqueGraph1_ang – Annual nominal change in investment in manufacturing industry
In 2010, investment would increase moderatly, by 1% in manufacturing industry
For 2010, business leaders forecast an increase of 1% in their equipment expenditures in manufacturing industry. They revised upwards their first forecasts given in last October. The increase in investment would concern intermediate-goods industry (+2%), consumer-goods industry (+2%) and Capital-goods industry (+1%).
tableauTab1_ang – Real annual investment growth
| In 2009 | In 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| forecast Oct.09 | estimate Jan.10 | forecat Oct.09 | estimate Jan.10 | |
| Food industry | –16 | –19 | –11 | –3 |
| Manufacturing industry | –24 | –27 | –5 | 1 |
| Consumer-goods industry | –13 | –17 | 0 | 2 |
| Motor-vehicle industry | –23 | –25 | –2 | –1 |
| Capital-goods industry | –11 | –11 | 0 | 1 |
| Intermediate-goods industry | –33 | –37 | –11 | 2 |
| All industry | –22 | –25 | –3 | 4 |
- How to read this table : In food industry, firms surveyed in January 2010 estimate nominal investment decrease of 19% in 2009 comparing to 2008. They forecat a decrease of 3% in 2010 comparing to 2009.
The investment revision indicator increases notably in January
The investment revision indicator increases notably comparing to the previous quarter. It’s now positive. Based on investment amounts filled in at each survey, this indicator is well-correlated with quarterly growth of gross fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises. That suggests that investment will increase during the first quarter.
graphiqueGraphIR_ang – Investment revision indicator in manufacturing industry
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,34 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry – Investment
