22 October 2015

2015- n° 255

In October 2015, the business climate in manufacturing remains above its long-term average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2015

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2015, the business climate in industry is virtually stable (–1 point) at a level (103) above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator has decreased and is in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

In October 2015, the balance of opinion on past activity has dropped (–3 points), after a rebound in September (+6 points); however, it stays above its long-term average. The one on personal production expectations is virtually stable and significantly above average.

Industrialists are less optimistic than in September on general production expectations of the sector (–3 points). However, the corresponding balance is still significantly above its mean level.

In October, global and export order books have deteriorated; the corresponding balances of opinion have dipped to a level close to their long-term mean.

Finally, industrialists are less numerous to judge that stocks of finished products are above the normal, the corresponding balance of opinion has lost 4 points and has become inferior to its long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity, already significantly higher than average, has still increased. Production expectations are virtually stable above their long period average. Global and export order books have slightly decreased. The balance on stocks of finished products has continued to rise beyond its mean level.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balance on past activity has slightly increased but stays at a level considerably lower than its long-term average. The one on production expectations has fallen back and has returned to a level close to normal. The balance on stocks of finished products, close to its mean level, has scarcely changed since the month of June. Global and export order books are virtually stable below their normal level.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity holds above the long-term average. The one on production prospects has dropped albeit remaining significantly higher to its mean level. Global order books are stable; however, export order books have declined. The corresponding balances of opinion remain above the mean. Stocks of finished goods are considered less high again; the corresponding balance is inferior to its long-term average for the second consecutive month.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity, already below its mean level, has decreased again. The one on production prospects has also diminished but stays considerably above normal. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products is stable above its long-term level. Order books are virtually stable and remain above the long-term average.

In “other manufacturing”, the balance of opinion on past activity has declined towards its long-term mean. The one on expected activity has slightly increased. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has fallen in that of plastic products while it has increased in that of pharmaceuticals and has stabilized in that of chemicals and in that of basic metals. The balance on expected activity has risen in the manufacture of chemicals and in that of plastic products but has dropped in that of basic metals and in that of pharmaceuticals. Global and export order books have plummeted in all sectors, excepted in pharmaceuticals where they are virtually stable. Finally, the balance of opinion on finished-goods inventories has slightly increased in the manufacture of chemicals, has flattened out in pharmaceuticals, is virtually stable in that of plastics products and has fallen in that of basic metals.