Obstacles gradually recedingConjoncture in France - December 2014

Vladimir Passeron, Laurent Clavel, Clément Bortoli et Thomas Laurent

General outlook : Obstacles gradually receding

Expectations of a slight recovery in global activity were confirmed in summer 2014. The advanced economies are still being led by the Anglo-Saxon countries. Data on the economic climate in autumn suggest stable overall growth for Q4 2014, before a more significant improvement in H1 2015. In the Eurozone, the depreciation of the Euro has taken hold since summer and is cause for a certain amount of optimism among exporting firms. The fall in oil prices has already triggered a small oil countershock, bringing positive effects on household purchasing power and on the financial situation of businesses. Several obstacles that have been more specific to the French economy could start to fade away. On the one hand, the significant adjustment to new housing investment expenditure should come to an end over the next half-year. On the other hand, the business climate has improved and the financial situation of companies will get better in early 2015 with the ramp-up of the CICE tax credit and the introduction of the "Responsibility and Solidarity Pact". The French economy should grow only slightly in Q4 2014 (+0.1%), but more in Q1 2015 (+0.3%) and in Q2 (+0.3%).

Conjoncture in France
Paru le : 18/12/2014