ResistanceConjoncture in France - December 2015

Vladimir Passeron - Dorian Roucher - Clément Bortoli - Pierre-Damien Olive

General outlook : Resistance

Through to mid-2016, growth should remain sound in the advanced economies. The upturn in world trade shoud be confirmed. In the emerging countries, activity seems to stabilize, but divergence the gap in the short-term outlook between the advanced and emirging countries remains significant. In the Eurozone, the depreciation of the single currency gives grounds for additional optimism as regards the rebound in exports. The accommodating policy of the European Central Bank has also brought down interest rates, providing households and businesses with an incentive to invest more. Finally, in November oil prices reached their lowest level since early 2009, boosting household purchasing power and the financial situation of enterprises. In France, growth is set to increase progressively through to mid-2016. However, the fears caused by the terror attacks of 13 November is likely to hit consumption by the end of the year, and GDP in Q4 should increase by just 0.2%. By H1 2016, these effects on growth should have almost faded out, although without triggering a backlash. Housing investment expenditure should have stopped falling after declining sharply for two years. In addition to this, the financial situation of companies has already recovered considerably in 2015 and should come even closer to its pre-crisis average. With stronger demand prospects and the one-off additional depreciation allowance incentive, their productive investment expenditure should remain buoyant. The French economy should accelerate in Q1 2016 (+0.4%) and continue at that rate in Q2. With the upturn in activity and the development of schemes to boost the number of jobs created by that growth, market-sector employment should continue to progress through to June 2016. When the non-market branches are taken into account, total employment should progress more quickly than the active population and the unemployment rate in France should fall to 10.4% in mid-2016, bringing it back down to its level in m

Conjoncture in France
Paru le : 17/12/2015