In Q4 2008 and early 2009, activity should decline sharply in industrialised countries. In early 2009, almost all these countries should therefore be in recession, and the French economy should not be an exception to the rule. In France, the business tendency surveys suggest a downturn in activity of 0.8 % in Q4 2008 followed by 0.4 % in Q1 2009. In Q2 2009, the slide in activity could be lessened to some extent (-0.1 %) as the first effects of the economic stimulus plan work their way through, under the assumption that the strong action taken by central banks and States around the world proves to be effective in easing financial tensions. The unemployment rate is expected to continue rising. It should hit 8.0% in Q2 2009, although this level remains well below that reached at the beginning of 2006.