Économie et Statistique n° 474Long run per capita GDP - Nursing care insurance - Retirement span and life expectancy - Measures of spatial concentration

Economie et Statistique
Paru le : 19/02/2015
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Career span and retirement span: how are life expectancy gains distributed?

Patrick Aubert et Simon Rabaté

This article looks at changes in the ratio between career span and retirement span among the generations born between 1943 and 1990, using the INSEE's Destinie microsimulation model. These results come in the wake of the stated objective of sharing gains in life expectancy at 60 between the working life and retirement, as set out in the pension reform of 2003, with the aim of maintaining the ratio between these two lifespans at a constant level from one generation to the next. The reforms of 2003, 2010 and 2014 have had a significant projection effect on the retirement ages of the 1943-1990 generations. Without these reforms, a little over three-quarters of life expectancy gains across the whole period would have been made during retirement. With the cumulated effect of these reforms, the rise in the retirement portion represents roughly one-third of the projected rise in life expectancy between the generations of 1943 and 1990. This proportion conforms to the target set out in 2003 but is the result of the combined effects of the extension of the required span and the shift in the legal ages - alone, the extension would have led to a bigger rise in the retirement portion, representing more than half of life expectancy gains. Although the extension of the working life further to the reforms of 2003, 2010 and 2014 does not guarantee a strict equalisation of the ratio between career and retirement, it does at least provide relative stability between the generations born between 1943 and 1990, in that this ratio remains within a range of 5% more or less than the average across all the generations. Within this range, certain generations may however appear to be favoured or disfavoured, as conclusions may also vary according to the meaning assigned to the notion of career.

Economie et Statistique
No 474
Paru le : 19/02/2015