Économie et Statistique n° 355-356 Business - Trade - Population Forecasts

Economie et Statistique
Paru le : 01/12/2002
Consulter

The population of mainland France in 2050: inexorable ageing

Chantal Brutel

Regardless of the fertility, mortality and migratory assumptions formed, the mainland population will continue to grow through to 2025, albeit at a lower average annual rate than observed over the last 50 years. The different scenarios estimate that mainland France will have 58 million to 70 million inhabitants by 2050. By this date, over one-third of the population will be over 60 years old, as opposed to one in five in 2000. The share of over-60s in the total population will be higher than the share of under-20s in all cases. There will still be more women among the older citizens despite the narrowing of the male/female deviation in life expectancy. The number of working-age individuals will start falling in 2006 as the first baby boom generations reach retirement age in 2005. All the assumptions estimate that the relative weight of the oldest individuals to working-age individuals will rise significantly. The leading European countries will also be faced, to varying extents, with ageing and even a falling population over this period. The Europe of Fifteen could hence find itself with 10 million fewer inhabitants in 2050. Nevertheless, the share of the French population in this population is expected to increase slightly from 15.7% in 2000 to 17% in 2050.

Economie et Statistique
No 355-356
Paru le : 01/12/2002