Labour force projections

Sources
Dernière mise à jour le : 08/12/2011

Présentation de l'opération

Organisme producteur :

Insee. Direction des statistiques démographiques et sociales (DSDS)

Objectifs :

Projections of the labour force - as defined by the ILO - aim to understand the future trends concerning the labour force that will be available to contribute to production, according to different scenarios for demographic trends and business behaviours.

These projections are based on population projections and business behaviour projections. The size of the workforce - as defined by the ILO - per gender and five-yearly age bracket, in addition to the mean activity rate over the year, are available for the 2010 to 2060 period.

Champ de l'opération

Champ géographique :

Metropolitan France

Caractéristiques techniques

Périodicité de l'opération :

INSEE formulates labour force projections after each demographic projection exercise. There is a five-year gap between exercises.

Méthodologie :

The projection method combines total population projections and participation rate projections for the different categories of gender and age reached at the end of the year.

The latter are based, for categories of age less than 54-year-old, on the econometric modelling of the rates, which isolates a development trend (accounted for by a logistic function of time), and superimposes certain inflexion factors: people development of learning, accumulation between employment and studies for young's.

Activity rates of seniors are evaluated by INSEE's "Destinie" behaviour model, which simulates life courses and projects the situation of retired people by taking into account the effect of pension reforms until 2010.

The modelling of participation rates seeks to isolate a long-term trend and thus does not take account of the short-term economic situation. However, the size of future fluctuations of the labour force depending on the economic situation may be estimated by means of activity variants using others demographics or behavioral hypothesis.

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