Population projections

Paru le :Paru le21/06/2024

The starting point of the population projections established by INSEE for France is the last final population numbers by sex and age.
Each year, population projections simulate the number of men and women of each age based on hypotheses concerning the trends in the three components of population variations (component method): fertility, mortality and migrations, up to the projection horizon.
From one year to another, population changes according to births, deaths and migratory movements (emigration and immigration).
The last projection exercise for France was published in November 2021. Its starting point was the population on 1st January 2021 by sex and age and with a horizon of 2070. The previous exercise had been carried out in 2016, for projections between 2013 and 2070.

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