Monthly outlook survey in industry 2019
The main themes addressed are:
- activity: company managers are asked about developments in the sector as a whole, as well as the demand addressed to them, the cash flow situation, the inventories payment deadlines, or factors limiting their activity;
- employment: business leaders are asked about recent employment in their company (changes in the number of employees over the last three months), as well as their employment forecast (likely changes in the number of employees over the next three months). They are also asked about their recruitment difficulties;
- the competitive position or delivery times.
Most of the survey questions are qualitative and have three modalities. The results are presented in the form of opinion balances, corresponding to the differences between the percentage of "increasing" (+) and the percentage of "decreasing" (-) responses.
The survey covers manufacturing industry and extraction industries; divisions 08 to 33 of French Nomenclature of Activities (NAF Rev. 2) (except 08.92Z, 09.10Z, 12, 19.10Z, 30.40Z).
Statistical concepts and definitions
The composite business climate indicator describes the common component of the selected balances of opinion on companies' general prospects for their sector, past activity, forecast activity, judgement of order books, past work force and inventories.
The turning point indicator aims to detect as early as possible when the outlook trend changes direction. This is a qualitative variable which is not directly observed. The indicator is presented in the form of a curve, retracing for each date the difference between the probability that the cyclical phase is favourable and the probability that it is unfavourable.
Some data have been available since 1962.