Informations Rapides ·
24 January 2025 · n° 21
In January 2025, developers’ opinion on the demand for new dwellings has clearly brightened
but remains weak Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2025
In January 2025, developers’ opinion on the demand for new dwellings has clearly improved compared to that of October, but remains well below its long-term average. The outlook for housing starts has deteriorated slightly. On the other hand, fewer developers than in October are expecting an improvement of their clients’ financial capacity.
In January 2025, developers’ opinion on the demand for new dwellings has clearly improved compared to that of October, but remains well below its long-term average. The outlook for housing starts has deteriorated slightly. On the other hand, fewer developers than in October are expecting an improvement of their clients’ financial capacity.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
| New dwelling demand tendency | Expected housing starts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q1 | -34.3 | -28.1 |
| 2024-Q4 | -48.7 | -27.4 |
| 2024-Q3 | -45.9 | -34.8 |
| 2024-Q2 | -53.1 | -33.6 |
| 2024-Q1 | -51.1 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -52.6 | -39.3 |
| 2023-Q3 | -50.0 | -34.4 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.4 | -29.8 |
| 2023-Q1 | -33.5 | -21.2 |
| 2022-Q4 | -28.5 | -18.5 |
| 2022-Q3 | -20.2 | -10.7 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 | -4.9 |
| 2022-Q1 | -6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.1 | -4.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.2 | -3.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.9 | -3.2 |
| 2021-Q1 | -16.4 | -4.6 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.0 | -8.7 |
| 2020-Q3 | -12.9 | -6.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.2 | -5.3 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 | -10.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.5 | -9.1 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.8 | -15.4 |
| 2018-Q4 | -19.9 | -6.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.7 | -9.9 |
| 2018-Q2 | -10.7 | -9.0 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.3 | -8.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.1 | -1.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.3 | 2.4 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.9 | 1.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 | -6.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 | -3.4 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 | -11.9 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 | -13.2 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 | -18.0 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 | -27.9 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 | -31.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 | -36.5 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 | -23.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 | -21.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 | -23.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 | -24.7 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 | -30.4 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 | -30.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 | -25.9 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 | -29.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 | -18.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 | -8.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 | -7.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 | 5.9 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 | 4.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 | 5.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 | -0.9 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 | -13.5 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 | -14.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 | -23.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 | -8.9 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 | 1.5 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 | 1.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 | 6.4 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 | 10.6 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency and expected housing starts
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was cancelled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Real estate developers are less pessimistic regarding the demand for new dwellings addressed to them, but remain reserved about their prospects for housing starts
In January 2025, real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new dwellings addressed to them has markedly improved: the corresponding balance of opinion have bounced back, resuming its upward momentum started in the third quarter of 2024. It remains nonetheless very weak, standing well below its long term average.
At the same time, developers’ opinion on prospects for housing starts has deteriorated slightly, whether housing is intended for rent or sale. Despite this slight decline, prospects for housing starts have remained on a rise over the year. However, the associated balance still stands way below its long-term average (especially for housing intended for sale).
Slightly more real estate developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building programs with architects or design offices. This share still remains close to its lowest level recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings remains virtually stable above its long-term average.
Real estate developers’ opinion on the prospects for changes in financing capacity has worsened
In January 2025, real estate developers have been less optimistic than in the previous quarter regarding prospects for changes, over the next three months, in new home financing capacity. The associated balance of opinion has sharply fallen back, returning near its long-term average.
The balance of opinion relating to the evolution of the average down payment of applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months is virtually stable, slightly below its long-term average.
The balance of opinion associated with the change in the expected average price of housing put up for sale has slightly fallen back. It remains below its long-term average for the sixth consecutive quarter.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 24 | Jul. 24 | Oct. 24 | Jan. 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -12 | -53 | -46 | -49 | -34 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -34 | -35 | -27 | -28 |
| for sale | -17 | -57 | -55 | -41 | -49 |
| for rent | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | -6 |
| Companies considering the study of new programs ** | 63 | 51 | 49 | 49 | 52 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -25 | -13 | -16 | -15 | -16 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | -17 | -18 | -14 | -17 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -16 | -23 | -21 | -20 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -19 | -28 | -9 | -19 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- ** Share of companies, in % of answers, SA.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development – INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 December 2024 and 21 January 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 29 April 2025 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 December 2024 and 21 January 2025. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 29 April 2025 at 12:00 pm.