Informations Rapides · 23 January 2025 · n° 14
In January 2025, the business climate in manufacturing industry has retreated Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2025

According to business managers surveyed in January 2025, the business climate in manufacturing industry has darkened. At 95, the synthetic indicator has decreased and has moved away from its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion on order books have strongly retreated. However, the balances relating to production and general production prospects have increased.

Informations rapides

N^o 14

Paru le :Paru le23/01/2025

Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025

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The balances of opinion on order books have strongly retreated
The business climate has declined in most of the sub-sectors, and in particular very strongly in the manufacturing of transport equipment
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tableauBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
	Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2025-01	95.3
2024-12	97.0
2024-11	96.7
2024-10	92.9
2024-09	99.1
2024-08	98.9
2024-07	95.4
2024-06	98.9
2024-05	99.5
2024-04	100.0
2024-03	102.1
2024-02	100.7
2024-01	99.0
2023-12	99.4
2023-11	99.0
2023-10	99.0
2023-09	98.7
2023-08	96.8
2023-07	100.8
2023-06	100.4
2023-05	99.3
2023-04	100.9
2023-03	103.1
2023-02	103.3
2023-01	102.6
2022-12	101.7
2022-11	102.0
2022-10	103.8
2022-09	102.5
2022-08	103.3
2022-07	105.4
2022-06	107.6
2022-05	107.0
2022-04	107.9
2022-03	107.1
2022-02	111.4
2022-01	112.6
2021-12	109.4
2021-11	110.6
2021-10	108.1
2021-09	107.5
2021-08	109.3
2021-07	109.2
2021-06	107.4
2021-05	107.5
2021-04	103.6
2021-03	98.0
2021-02	96.9
2021-01	95.9
2020-12	94.8
2020-11	92.4
2020-10	94.6
2020-09	94.7
2020-08	91.0
2020-07	81.1
2020-06	76.6
2020-05	69.9
2020-04	66.3
2020-03	97.3
2020-02	100.3
2020-01	102.3
2019-12	99.2
2019-11	102.8
2019-10	100.3
2019-09	102.6
2019-08	102.0
2019-07	101.0
2019-06	101.8
2019-05	103.6
2019-04	101.1
2019-03	103.4
2019-02	102.9
2019-01	103.2
2018-12	103.7
2018-11	105.7
2018-10	105.0
2018-09	108.1
2018-08	108.6
2018-07	108.5
2018-06	109.5
2018-05	109.8
2018-04	110.3
2018-03	110.7
2018-02	112.4
2018-01	113.8
2017-12	112.2
2017-11	112.2
2017-10	112.1
2017-09	111.8
2017-08	110.1
2017-07	108.5
2017-06	109.0
2017-05	108.4
2017-04	108.2
2017-03	105.5
2017-02	106.6
2017-01	105.9
2016-12	105.8
2016-11	102.2
2016-10	102.2
2016-09	103.5
2016-08	101.6
2016-07	101.7
2016-06	101.6
2016-05	104.3
2016-04	104.8
2016-03	102.6
2016-02	103.0
2016-01	102.9
2015-12	102.6
2015-11	102.3
2015-10	103.2
2015-09	104.8
2015-08	103.6
2015-07	101.5
2015-06	100.2
2015-05	101.7
2015-04	101.5
2015-03	99.0
2015-02	98.3
2015-01	98.7
2014-12	98.6
2014-11	98.8
2014-10	97.3
2014-09	96.8
2014-08	96.5
2014-07	96.2
2014-06	96.4
2014-05	98.2
2014-04	100.3
2014-03	100.7
2014-02	98.2
2014-01	99.6
2013-12	99.2
2013-11	98.0
2013-10	97.8
2013-09	95.8
2013-08	98.4
2013-07	94.6
2013-06	92.5
2013-05	91.8
2013-04	87.3
2013-03	90.3
2013-02	90.3
2013-01	89.6
2012-12	90.6
2012-11	91.4
2012-10	86.7
2012-09	92.5
2012-08	92.7
2012-07	90.9
2012-06	92.9
2012-05	94.6
2012-04	95.5
2012-03	96.4
2012-02	94.8
2012-01	94.7
2011-12	94.5
2011-11	97.5
2011-10	97.3
2011-09	99.1
2011-08	101.3
2011-07	104.9
2011-06	109.9
2011-05	107.3
2011-04	110.3
2011-03	110.3
2011-02	106.9
2011-01	108.8
2010-12	104.1
2010-11	101.7
2010-10	104.0
2010-09	102.8
2010-08	100.2
2010-07	97.0
2010-06	95.4
2010-05	96.2
2010-04	94.7
2010-03	90.8
2010-02	88.2
2010-01	89.7
2009-12	86.9
2009-11	87.0
2009-10	84.6
2009-09	83.4
2009-08	80.3
2009-07	75.8
2009-06	74.2
2009-05	71.6
2009-04	69.9
2009-03	65.8
2009-02	67.8
2009-01	72.0
2008-12	72.7
2008-11	79.3
2008-10	86.8
2008-09	91.5
2008-08	98.0
2008-07	98.7
2008-06	103.5
2008-05	104.2
2008-04	107.5
2008-03	110.2
2008-02	110.5
2008-01	110.7
2007-12	112.7
2007-11	112.5
2007-10	110.2
2007-09	110.8
2007-08	111.2
2007-07	111.8
2007-06	111.5
2007-05	110.3
2007-04	112.2
2007-03	111.6
2007-02	111.9
2007-01	108.4
2006-12	109.3
2006-11	109.8
2006-10	107.3
2006-09	108.3
2006-08	108.7
2006-07	109.1
2006-06	108.7
2006-05	109.0
2006-04	108.0
2006-03	106.5
2006-02	106.6
2006-01	103.1
2005-12	104.1
2005-11	101.0
2005-10	101.1
2005-09	98.8
2005-08	99.5
2005-07	100.0
2005-06	98.9
2005-05	96.9
2005-04	96.5
2005-03	99.6
2005-02	103.1
2005-01	103.2

graphiqueBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

tableauIndustrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry	Ave.*	Oct-24	Nov-24	Dec-24	Jan-25
Business climate	100	93	97	97	95
Past production	5	-12	-7	-9	-1
Finished-goods inventory	12	17	8	15	10
Overall order books	-18	-25	-21	-18	-27
Foreign order books	-14	-22	-19	-8	-19
Past workforce size	-8	-4	-2	-3	-5
Expected workforce size	-9	-1	2	-1	-1
Personal production prospects	6	-2	5	-1	1
General production prospects	-7	-12	-14	-19	-15
Expected trend in selling prices	4	7	3	2	9
Economic uncertainty felt**	29	25	23	32	29

* Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion.
Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry.

The balances of opinion on order books have strongly retreated

In January 2025, the balances of opinion associated with the level of order books, both global and foreign, have strongly retreated, mainly due to manufacturing of “other transport equipment”. Both have gone back below their average. The balance on global order books has reached its lowest level since 2014 (excluding COVID-19 pandemic).

The balance of opinion on past production has sharply rebounded but remains below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production prospects has experienced a smaller rebound and also remains below its average. Finally, the balance relating to general production prospects in the industry has begun to rise anew after a decrease from three consecutive months, and also remains at a level well below its long-term average. The balance on economic uncertainty felt by business leaders has decreased and has returned to its own.

The balance of opinion on the current level of finished-goods inventories has retreated and has moved below its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on the past evolution of workforce size has decreased again and has moved closer to its average. The one relating to its expected evolution is stable, above its own. Both are at their lowest level since respectively May and April 2021.

The balance of opinion relating to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has strongly rebounded and has gone back above its average.

The share of companies reporting being limited in their production by workforce shortage is stable, above its average. The share reporting sourcing difficulties as a limiting factor to their production has increased again and has moved a little further away from its own. The proportion of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only is stable: at 24%, it remains slightly above its long-term average. The share of companies reporting obstacles linked to demand only is also stable: at 25%, it is well below its long-term average.

tableauShare of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry	Ave.**	Oct-24	Nov-24	Dec-24	Jan-25
Difficulties of supply and demand	9	9	9	13	10
Sourcing difficulties	11	11	11	14	18
Workforce shortage	9	12	10	12	12
Difficulties of supply only	22	25	24	24	24
Difficulties of demand only	39	28	29	25	25

* Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022.
** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
Source: INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry.

The business climate has declined in most of the sub-sectors, and in particular very strongly in the manufacturing of transport equipment

In January 2025, the business climate indicator in the manufacturing of food products and beverages has slightly retreated, mainly due to the balances of opinion on order books. At 97, it is below its long-term average.

In the manufacturing of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has sharply dropped and has reached its lowest level since 2014 (excluding COVID-19 pandemic), mainly driven by the decline in the balances of opinion relating to order books. The business climate indicator has diminished in all three sub-sectors, but the fall is the most pronounced in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products and in the manufacturing of machinery and equipment.

In the manufacturing of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has strongly retreated and has moved just below its long-term average. It has fallen back as well in the sub-sector of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers as in the “other transport equipment”, mainly because of the drop in the balances of opinion on order books, both global and foreign.

Finally, the business climate indicator in “other manufacturing” has slightly rebounded, mainly because of the rise in the balance of opinion on foreign order books, which has increased again. At 94, the indicator nevertheless remains well below its long-term average. The business climate has recovered in textiles industry, rubber manufacturing and “chemicals and chemical products”, while it has deteriorated again in “basic metals and fabricated metal products”.

Graphique
Tableau

Affichage de l’onglet contenant le tableau ou de l’onglet contenant le graphique

tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
	(C1)	(C3)	(C4)	(C5)
2025-01	97.1	93.2	98.9	94.0
2024-12	97.9	96.7	109.6	93.1
2024-11	97.0	96.9	101.6	94.2
2024-10	95.9	95.9	95.5	94.3
2024-09	94.9	98.4	110.1	94.0
2024-08	97.3	95.7	110.1	95.1
2024-07	92.0	97.2	100.2	94.2
2024-06	92.2	99.2	109.4	95.2
2024-05	90.3	99.4	109.0	96.8
2024-04	92.1	97.0	111.1	95.3
2024-03	89.6	102.3	112.2	96.0
2024-02	86.8	98.5	111.1	96.5
2024-01	86.8	98.8	112.3	94.3
2023-12	85.8	98.7	111.4	95.2
2023-11	86.0	103.7	110.5	94.4
2023-10	85.0	101.2	111.9	94.8
2023-09	88.0	104.7	103.2	95.8
2023-08	88.0	102.3	102.9	95.1
2023-07	91.6	106.4	111.8	94.6
2023-06	87.1	105.7	105.1	94.8
2023-05	92.4	106.3	103.7	95.0
2023-04	93.9	109.8	103.4	97.3
2023-03	97.2	111.6	103.5	98.4
2023-02	101.7	109.9	104.2	96.5
2023-01	100.7	111.1	103.1	96.7
2022-12	99.6	112.2	102.3	96.0
2022-11	104.9	111.0	103.6	96.0
2022-10	108.9	114.0	104.7	97.0
2022-09	107.3	111.6	99.5	98.7
2022-08	107.6	112.9	99.9	99.7
2022-07	107.3	112.6	105.2	101.7
2022-06	107.4	112.3	101.8	105.8
2022-05	107.1	111.9	101.4	104.9
2022-04	109.2	113.3	101.7	108.5
2022-03	109.8	112.0	99.6	107.7
2022-02	110.9	114.9	103.9	111.7
2022-01	112.2	115.8	104.5	110.9
2021-12	116.5	116.6	91.1	112.4
2021-11	115.9	116.5	97.3	114.0
2021-10	113.6	115.9	90.4	111.9
2021-09	109.7	116.1	89.4	113.2
2021-08	111.2	119.5	92.4	113.2
2021-07	114.3	114.8	91.9	114.8
2021-06	116.6	115.4	89.8	110.8
2021-05	116.1	111.9	89.7	110.4
2021-04	105.8	112.8	88.5	107.1
2021-03	100.2	106.0	83.0	104.0
2021-02	94.6	105.1	88.9	101.5
2021-01	91.7	103.1	87.0	100.7
2020-12	89.3	95.2	88.8	101.9
2020-11	93.3	91.1	90.7	95.1
2020-10	94.5	93.0	91.4	95.8
2020-09	102.7	90.2	92.7	92.8
2020-08	96.6	89.8	90.7	87.7
2020-07	88.4	84.6	79.7	81.1
2020-06	90.9	79.1	76.0	78.4
2020-05	91.5	76.8	74.8	73.6
2020-04	93.5	76.8	72.4	72.4
2020-03	107.9	98.1	94.8	97.1
2020-02	108.1	98.9	99.3	100.3
2020-01	108.3	99.8	105.5	99.4
2019-12	107.7	97.3	100.8	97.8
2019-11	104.8	98.2	107.4	101.3
2019-10	105.9	96.1	101.3	99.9
2019-09	108.4	99.8	102.5	101.9
2019-08	108.6	99.2	101.5	101.8
2019-07	103.0	102.8	99.6	100.3
2019-06	108.7	98.8	100.4	100.8
2019-05	111.0	104.0	102.1	102.1
2019-04	107.3	101.0	100.4	100.5
2019-03	107.8	100.3	102.2	101.5
2019-02	108.4	104.3	99.5	101.3
2019-01	108.1	102.4	102.0	102.2
2018-12	107.9	102.7	103.0	102.4
2018-11	109.0	102.2	105.1	103.1
2018-10	102.8	106.4	104.2	103.8
2018-09	107.7	107.8	105.8	105.5
2018-08	107.8	107.3	106.5	105.8
2018-07	107.3	107.7	106.6	106.6
2018-06	109.5	107.5	109.8	105.7
2018-05	108.1	110.8	108.3	107.6
2018-04	110.4	109.1	111.6	107.4
2018-03	109.2	109.2	111.2	109.5
2018-02	110.1	110.0	111.7	110.2
2018-01	111.2	111.4	112.1	111.3
2017-12	111.3	111.3	111.0	110.7
2017-11	112.0	109.8	110.2	111.6
2017-10	112.1	109.1	109.1	111.5
2017-09	106.8	107.8	110.1	109.2
2017-08	108.9	106.1	108.8	108.3
2017-07	109.2	108.5	109.1	106.9
2017-06	111.7	108.3	104.9	108.6
2017-05	105.7	108.2	105.3	106.9
2017-04	105.6	106.4	103.9	107.6
2017-03	104.4	103.9	104.6	104.8
2017-02	105.4	103.3	105.7	106.4
2017-01	103.7	101.5	106.2	105.7
2016-12	108.7	103.2	104.6	104.9
2016-11	108.0	99.5	102.0	101.5
2016-10	106.8	97.3	105.9	101.3
2016-09	109.3	98.5	105.3	100.5
2016-08	99.5	98.3	104.1	101.4
2016-07	104.7	97.5	105.4	101.7
2016-06	103.3	97.2	106.0	101.5
2016-05	103.4	97.2	105.8	103.9
2016-04	106.1	100.0	109.2	101.3
2016-03	101.7	99.2	105.9	101.2
2016-02	100.3	100.8	109.2	99.9
2016-01	101.7	100.7	108.2	99.5
2015-12	100.1	98.1	108.0	101.7
2015-11	102.6	99.7	107.8	99.5
2015-10	104.4	98.2	108.1	99.9
2015-09	105.6	96.0	109.3	102.6
2015-08	103.3	97.3	108.4	101.5
2015-07	108.6	98.4	104.9	102.9
2015-06	105.2	97.1	105.3	100.9
2015-05	101.9	97.3	104.9	101.6
2015-04	104.8	96.7	107.1	100.7
2015-03	101.0	94.3	105.2	100.2
2015-02	99.6	95.0	100.6	100.2
2015-01	103.3	93.3	101.4	99.8
2014-12	99.3	92.0	99.4	100.2
2014-11	96.2	92.0	99.9	99.8
2014-10	95.7	92.5	97.0	98.5
2014-09	94.4	92.1	100.9	97.2
2014-08	95.8	93.4	97.7	100.6
2014-07	97.3	89.1	98.6	99.1
2014-06	95.7	91.7	97.7	98.5
2014-05	98.2	93.7	97.7	99.5
2014-04	96.0	92.8	102.5	100.2
2014-03	99.8	92.8	100.5	102.5
2014-02	99.3	93.7	98.0	98.3
2014-01	99.5	91.0	101.9	98.7
2013-12	98.3	91.9	99.4	99.2
2013-11	98.2	92.1	102.1	98.7
2013-10	95.5	90.1	103.5	97.7
2013-09	95.0	89.9	97.3	97.1
2013-08	95.5	91.5	101.1	97.1
2013-07	92.5	89.5	98.5	94.9
2013-06	92.7	89.1	94.4	93.2
2013-05	91.6	89.3	94.7	91.7
2013-04	91.7	89.5	92.6	89.1
2013-03	94.0	88.8	93.3	91.2
2013-02	98.0	88.8	94.3	90.1
2013-01	97.6	87.9	92.8	91.2
2012-12	98.8	87.4	92.2	91.8
2012-11	98.2	87.2	92.8	92.2
2012-10	91.0	86.1	95.9	89.3
2012-09	96.8	91.0	97.6	93.6
2012-08	93.8	90.2	95.2	93.5
2012-07	94.6	90.9	95.4	92.2
2012-06	95.1	90.9	95.5	93.6
2012-05	93.4	94.9	95.0	95.8
2012-04	99.2	95.7	94.3	97.8
2012-03	102.7	96.4	103.1	97.1
2012-02	100.6	96.1	93.6	95.9
2012-01	100.0	96.1	94.7	94.0
2011-12	98.6	96.1	100.0	94.5
2011-11	102.2	96.0	102.6	94.1
2011-10	104.5	98.3	100.2	96.4
2011-09	102.0	99.5	98.4	98.1
2011-08	103.6	100.4	101.8	100.4
2011-07	111.6	102.4	103.5	105.0
2011-06	108.7	104.1	109.3	109.0
2011-05	109.9	103.1	105.0	107.8
2011-04	109.1	104.6	105.8	110.1
2011-03	106.8	106.4	106.2	109.8
2011-02	107.4	101.7	98.8	108.5
2011-01	109.1	103.8	104.9	105.3

graphiqueBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990

Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64]	Weights** (%)	Nov-24	Dec-24	Jan-25
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages	20	97	98	97
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods	11	97	97	93
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products	4	108	107	102
[CJ] Electrical equipment	3	92	94	93
[CK] Machinery and equipment	5	92	93	88
(C4) Man. of transport equipment	19	102	110	99
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	9	96	97	92
[CL2] Other transport equipment	10	103	116	103
(C5) Other manufacturing	45	94	93	94
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry	2	99	99	104
[CC] Wood, paper, printing	4	94	94	94
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products	8	89	88	90
[CG] Rubber and plastic products	7	87	87	89
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products	11	95	93	91
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products	10	102	103	102

* NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry.

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of December 2024 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys related to European harmonisation – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 26 December 2024 and 20 January 2025; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Next issue: 21 February 2025 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr

Publication calendar

Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

Insee Blog (in french): Les enquêtes de conjoncture se valent-elles toutes ?

Ouvrir dans un nouvel ongletThe Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS)