Informations Rapides ·
26 January 2024 · n° 21
In January 2024, the business climate in the real-estate development has brightened
slightly but remains very deteriorated Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2024
In January 2024, the real estate business climate has brightened slightly, putting an end to the uninterrupted downward trend observed since the third quarter 2021. Real estate developers’ opinion on demand of new building addressed to them and on the outlook for financing means has improved but remains very deteriorated.
In January 2024, the real estate business climate has brightened slightly, putting an end to the uninterrupted downward trend observed since the third quarter 2021. Real estate developers’ opinion on demand of new building addressed to them and on the outlook for financing means has improved but remains very deteriorated.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2024-Q1 | -49.3 |
| 2023-Q4 | -53.8 |
| 2023-Q3 | -51.3 |
| 2023-Q2 | -42.2 |
| 2023-Q1 | -31.3 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Real estate developers are slightly less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the demand that is addressed to them
In January 2024, developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them has improved. The corresponding balance of opinion has slightly rebounded, after three years of drop. Nonetheless, its level remains one of the lowest ever measured since the start of this index (in 1991). Developers’ opinion on the prospect for housing starts has also improved slightly: both the global balance as well as the balance on housing for sale specifically have rebounded, while the one on housing for rent is stable. These three balances remain well below their respective averages. Nevertheless, less developers than in the previous quarter have declared to be considering the study of new building program. Their share has dipped again and reaches its lowest level since the start of the index (1991).
The balance of opinion on unsold dwellings has slightly diminished for the first time since mid-2022, but remains way above its long term average.
Real estate developers have foreseen a clear improvement for new home financing
In January 2024, real estate developers are significantly less pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospects of evolution, over the next three months, of new home financing. The corresponding balance of opinion has rebounded sharply after two years of almost continuous drop. It remains however below its long term average.
Furthermore, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of housing for sale has kept on dropping, moving away from his average.
Lastly, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months has felt slightly, and has reached its long term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | Jan. 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -11 | -42 | -51 | -54 | -49 |
| Expected housing starts | -8 | -30 | -34 | -41 | -39 |
| - for sale | -16 | -48 | -43 | -62 | -59 |
| - for rent | 1 | 3 | -17 | -7 | -7 |
| Unsold dwelling stock | -26 | -7 | -7 | -6 | -9 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 29 | 9 | -1 | -6 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -5 | -16 | -16 | -18 |
| Financing capacity | -21 | -45 | -41 | -47 | -29 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December 2023 and 23 January 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 April 2024 at 12:00 pm.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December 2023 and 23 January 2024. The response rate to this survey is usually lower than that measured in most other business surveys.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 April 2024 at 12:00 pm.