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Informations Rapides · 25 January 2024 · n° 12
Informations rapidesIn January 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry remains stable, just below its long-term average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry remains stable. At 99, the synthetic indicator is just below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion on personal production prospects over the next three months has rebounded while the one on the evolution of the production over the last three months has withdrawn.

Informations rapides
No 12
Paru le :Paru le25/01/2024
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025
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According to the business managers surveyed in January 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry remains stable. At 99, the synthetic indicator is just below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion on personal production prospects over the next three months has rebounded while the one on the evolution of the production over the last three months has withdrawn.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2024-01 98.8
2023-12 99.3
2023-11 98.6
2023-10 98.8
2023-09 99.1
2023-08 96.8
2023-07 100.7
2023-06 100.1
2023-05 98.9
2023-04 100.9
2023-03 103.6
2023-02 103.3
2023-01 102.2
2022-12 101.4
2022-11 101.6
2022-10 103.7
2022-09 102.7
2022-08 103.3
2022-07 105.3
2022-06 107.2
2022-05 106.6
2022-04 107.9
2022-03 107.5
2022-02 111.2
2022-01 112.2
2021-12 109.2
2021-11 110.1
2021-10 108.0
2021-09 107.7
2021-08 109.5
2021-07 109.1
2021-06 107.3
2021-05 107.4
2021-04 103.8
2021-03 98.5
2021-02 97.0
2021-01 95.8
2020-12 94.9
2020-11 92.4
2020-10 95.0
2020-09 95.1
2020-08 91.3
2020-07 81.2
2020-06 76.7
2020-05 69.7
2020-04 66.3
2020-03 97.4
2020-02 100.1
2020-01 101.9
2019-12 99.2
2019-11 102.5
2019-10 100.2
2019-09 102.4
2019-08 101.9
2019-07 101.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-05 103.4
2019-04 101.1
2019-03 103.4
2019-02 102.8
2019-01 103.0
2018-12 103.6
2018-11 105.5
2018-10 104.8
2018-09 107.9
2018-08 108.6
2018-07 108.5
2018-06 109.4
2018-05 109.6
2018-04 110.3
2018-03 110.5
2018-02 112.2
2018-01 113.6
2017-12 112.1
2017-11 112.0
2017-10 111.8
2017-09 111.5
2017-08 110.0
2017-07 108.5
2017-06 108.9
2017-05 108.3
2017-04 108.3
2017-03 105.3
2017-02 106.4
2017-01 105.8
2016-12 105.8
2016-11 102.1
2016-10 102.1
2016-09 103.5
2016-08 101.5
2016-07 101.5
2016-06 101.4
2016-05 104.3
2016-04 104.7
2016-03 102.5
2016-02 102.9
2016-01 102.7
2015-12 102.5
2015-11 102.3
2015-10 103.1
2015-09 104.8
2015-08 103.5
2015-07 101.5
2015-06 100.2
2015-05 101.7
2015-04 101.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-02 98.4
2015-01 98.7
2014-12 98.6
2014-11 98.7
2014-10 97.3
2014-09 96.8
2014-08 96.5
2014-07 96.1
2014-06 96.5
2014-05 98.3
2014-04 100.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-02 98.2
2014-01 99.5
2013-12 99.2
2013-11 98.1
2013-10 97.8
2013-09 95.7
2013-08 98.4
2013-07 94.6
2013-06 92.5
2013-05 91.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-02 90.3
2013-01 89.6
2012-12 90.7
2012-11 91.4
2012-10 86.7
2012-09 92.4
2012-08 92.7
2012-07 90.8
2012-06 92.9
2012-05 94.6
2012-04 95.5
2012-03 96.3
2012-02 94.7
2012-01 94.8
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 97.4
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 99.1
2011-08 101.2
2011-07 104.8
2011-06 109.9
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 110.2
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 107.0
2011-01 108.8
2010-12 104.2
2010-11 101.8
2010-10 104.1
2010-09 102.9
2010-08 100.4
2010-07 97.2
2010-06 95.7
2010-05 96.5
2010-04 95.1
2010-03 91.0
2010-02 88.6
2010-01 90.1
2009-12 87.3
2009-11 87.4
2009-10 85.0
2009-09 83.7
2009-08 80.7
2009-07 76.0
2009-06 74.5
2009-05 71.8
2009-04 70.0
2009-03 66.0
2009-02 67.9
2009-01 72.1
2008-12 72.9
2008-11 79.4
2008-10 86.7
2008-09 91.4
2008-08 97.9
2008-07 98.6
2008-06 103.3
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 107.3
2008-03 110.0
2008-02 110.3
2008-01 110.6
2007-12 112.5
2007-11 112.3
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-07 111.5
2007-06 111.3
2007-05 110.1
2007-04 112.0
2007-03 111.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-01 108.3
2006-12 109.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-10 107.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-08 108.5
2006-07 108.9
2006-06 108.6
2006-05 108.8
2006-04 107.9
2006-03 106.3
2006-02 106.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 104.1
2005-11 100.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-09 98.8
2005-08 99.5
2005-07 100.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-05 96.9
2005-04 96.4
2005-03 99.6
2005-02 103.1
2005-01 103.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing industry (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24
Business climate 100 99 99 99 99
Past production 5 -9 -9 -1 -7
Finished-goods inventory 12 15 13 14 11
Overall order books -18 -17 -17 -19 -19
Foreign order books -14 -4 -6 -7 -8
Past workforce size -8 4 5 5 2
Expected workforce size -9 7 7 6 6
Personal production expectations 6 5 6 4 7
General production expectations -7 -10 -11 -10 -7
Expected trend in selling prices 4 0 -2 -3 4
Economic uncertainty felt** 30 28 28 27 32
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021).
  • ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on production prospects have increased

In January 2024, the balances of opinion on production prospects in the industry over the next three months have increased. The one on the personal production expectations has rebounded, standing just above its long-period average, and the one on general prospects has increased again and has reached its average. Conversely, the balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has withdrawn and has moved away from its average. The economic uncertainty felt by the business leaders has risen: the corresponding balance has gone back above its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of the overall and foreign order-books are almost stable. The one relative to the overall order-books is just below its average while the one relative to the foreign order-books remains above its average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of finished-goods inventories has withdrawn: he has gone back below its long-period average, after being above since Summer 2022.

Concerning the workforce size, the balance of opinion on the past change has diminished and the one of the expected change is stable. Both remain well above their average.

The balance of opinion related to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has rebounded after several months of decrease and has gone back to its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has clearly decreased in January and has gone closer to its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is stable. In total, the share of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has reduced again: at 29%, it remains nevertheless above its long-term average. Conversely, the share of companies declaring difficulties of demand only has increased again: at 24%, it is nonetheless well below its long-period average.

Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production*

Share of companies, in % of answers, SA
Share of companies declaring obstacles limiting their production* (Share of companies, in % of answers, SA)
Manufacturing industry Ave.** Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 11 9 9 11
Sourcing difficulties 11 19 21 18 18
Workforce shortage 9 22 22 22 14
Difficulties of supply only 22 32 34 30 29
Difficulties of demand only 40 24 22 23 24
  • * Quaterly series from January 1991 then monthly series from May 2022
  • ** Long-term average since 1991 on monthly series (over the quarterly collection period, the point collected in the first month of each quarter was carried over identically to the following two months).
  • Sources : INSEE – Monthly business survey in industry

The business climate has improved in the manufacture of transport equipment, but it has degraded in the “other manufacturing”

In January 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable, clearly below its long-period average. The balance of opinion on the evolution of the production over the last three months has highly withdrawn while the one relative to the evolution of the production over the next three months has increased again.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate is stable, slightly below its long-term average. The balances of opinion relative to the level of the order-books have retreated but the balances of opinion associated to the evolution of the production have rebounded.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate is on the rise and remains well above its average. It has slightly increased in the sub-sector of “motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” setting up just below its average, and it has increased more highly in the sub-sector of “other transport equipment” where the synthetic indicator remains well above its average.

Finally, the business climate in the “other manufacturing” has darkened anew and has reached, as in last November, its lowest level since September 2020. The climate has withdrawn especially in the sub-sector of “basic metals and fabricated metal products” where the balances of opinion related to the evolution of the production over the last three months and the levels of the order-books have diminished and are well below their respective average.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2024-01 86.0 97.9 113.5 93.7
2023-12 86.0 98.5 111.3 95.1
2023-11 85.3 103.4 110.7 93.9
2023-10 84.2 100.6 112.4 94.4
2023-09 87.6 104.2 104.1 95.6
2023-08 87.5 101.3 103.3 95.1
2023-07 91.5 106.2 112.1 94.5
2023-06 85.8 105.4 105.3 94.7
2023-05 92.7 105.9 103.4 95.1
2023-04 94.0 109.6 103.1 97.8
2023-03 99.2 112.1 104.0 98.9
2023-02 102.4 109.9 104.0 96.1
2023-01 100.2 111.2 103.1 96.3
2022-12 99.5 111.7 102.2 95.9
2022-11 104.0 110.6 103.9 95.5
2022-10 107.8 113.3 105.7 96.5
2022-09 106.5 111.0 100.6 98.4
2022-08 107.0 111.8 100.6 99.7
2022-07 106.8 112.4 105.6 101.6
2022-06 106.3 111.9 102.1 105.6
2022-05 107.1 111.4 101.1 104.9
2022-04 109.1 113.0 101.3 108.8
2022-03 111.1 112.3 99.9 107.9
2022-02 111.2 114.8 103.8 111.2
2022-01 111.6 115.9 104.6 110.3
2021-12 116.3 116.2 91.4 112.1
2021-11 115.1 116.1 97.5 113.4
2021-10 112.6 115.4 91.5 111.3
2021-09 109.1 115.6 90.2 112.8
2021-08 111.0 118.6 93.0 113.1
2021-07 113.9 114.9 92.3 114.5
2021-06 116.0 115.1 90.0 110.7
2021-05 116.3 111.6 89.8 110.4
2021-04 105.6 112.7 88.6 107.4
2021-03 101.2 106.4 83.6 104.1
2021-02 94.6 105.2 89.0 101.2
2021-01 91.3 103.4 87.2 100.3
2020-12 89.2 95.4 89.0 101.7
2020-11 92.6 91.2 91.0 94.8
2020-10 93.6 93.2 92.3 95.5
2020-09 102.2 90.3 93.3 92.7
2020-08 96.6 89.6 91.0 88.0
2020-07 88.2 85.1 80.1 81.3
2020-06 90.8 79.3 76.2 78.7
2020-05 91.6 76.7 74.5 73.9
2020-04 93.0 76.8 72.3 72.7
2020-03 108.4 98.3 95.1 97.1
2020-02 107.8 99.1 99.3 100.0
2020-01 107.8 99.9 105.2 99.1
2019-12 107.5 97.2 100.9 97.7
2019-11 104.4 98.1 107.4 100.9
2019-10 105.1 96.0 101.8 99.5
2019-09 108.1 99.6 102.6 101.6
2019-08 108.7 98.7 101.4 101.8
2019-07 102.8 102.8 99.8 100.3
2019-06 108.5 98.8 100.5 100.8
2019-05 111.1 103.9 102.0 102.2
2019-04 107.0 100.8 100.4 100.6
2019-03 107.9 100.4 102.4 101.3
2019-02 107.9 104.4 99.8 101.0
2019-01 107.7 102.5 102.1 101.9
2018-12 107.8 102.5 103.3 102.2
2018-11 108.7 102.0 105.4 102.8
2018-10 102.1 106.2 104.7 103.3
2018-09 107.7 107.4 106.0 105.1
2018-08 107.8 106.8 106.7 105.7
2018-07 107.3 107.9 106.8 106.5
2018-06 109.4 107.5 109.8 105.7
2018-05 108.0 110.7 108.1 107.6
2018-04 109.9 109.0 111.6 107.5
2018-03 109.1 109.3 111.2 109.2
2018-02 109.6 110.1 111.9 110.0
2018-01 111.0 111.3 112.1 110.9
2017-12 111.3 111.0 111.2 110.5
2017-11 111.8 109.6 110.4 111.3
2017-10 111.5 108.9 109.5 111.0
2017-09 107.0 107.5 110.2 108.9
2017-08 108.6 105.7 108.9 108.2
2017-07 109.2 108.6 109.3 106.9
2017-06 111.6 108.2 105.1 108.5
2017-05 105.5 108.2 105.3 106.8
2017-04 104.9 106.3 104.3 107.6
2017-03 104.0 104.0 104.9 104.4
2017-02 105.0 103.3 106.0 106.2
2017-01 103.6 101.5 106.5 105.4
2016-12 108.4 103.1 104.9 104.8
2016-11 107.8 99.5 102.3 101.4
2016-10 106.6 97.3 106.0 101.1
2016-09 108.9 98.4 105.5 100.3
2016-08 99.4 98.2 104.2 101.3
2016-07 104.5 97.5 105.5 101.5
2016-06 103.1 97.1 106.2 101.4
2016-05 103.3 97.2 106.1 103.7
2016-04 105.9 99.9 109.4 101.1
2016-03 101.5 99.1 106.1 101.0
2016-02 100.1 100.7 109.3 99.8
2016-01 101.6 100.6 108.3 99.4
2015-12 99.9 98.1 108.1 101.6
2015-11 102.4 99.6 108.0 99.4
2015-10 104.3 98.1 108.2 99.7
2015-09 105.4 96.0 109.4 102.5
2015-08 103.1 97.3 108.4 101.4
2015-07 108.3 98.3 105.1 102.7
2015-06 104.9 97.1 105.5 100.8
2015-05 101.8 97.2 105.1 101.4
2015-04 104.6 96.6 107.2 100.5
2015-03 100.8 94.2 105.4 100.0
2015-02 99.4 95.0 100.9 100.1
2015-01 103.1 93.3 101.6 99.6
2014-12 99.1 92.0 99.7 100.1
2014-11 96.1 92.0 100.1 99.6
2014-10 95.5 92.5 97.3 98.3
2014-09 94.3 92.1 101.0 97.1
2014-08 95.5 93.4 97.9 100.4
2014-07 97.1 89.2 99.0 98.9
2014-06 95.5 91.7 98.1 98.4
2014-05 98.0 93.7 98.1 99.3
2014-04 95.8 92.7 102.8 100.0
2014-03 99.6 92.8 100.8 102.3
2014-02 99.1 93.8 98.2 98.2
2014-01 99.3 91.1 102.2 98.5
2013-12 98.1 91.9 99.8 99.0
2013-11 98.0 92.2 102.3 98.6
2013-10 95.4 90.2 103.7 97.6
2013-09 94.8 89.9 97.5 97.0
2013-08 95.3 91.5 101.4 97.0
2013-07 92.4 89.6 98.7 94.8
2013-06 92.6 89.2 94.7 93.1
2013-05 91.4 89.4 95.0 91.6
2013-04 91.5 89.6 92.8 89.0
2013-03 93.8 88.9 93.6 91.1
2013-02 97.8 88.8 94.4 90.1
2013-01 97.4 87.9 92.8 91.1
2012-12 98.6 87.5 92.3 91.7
2012-11 98.0 87.3 92.9 92.1
2012-10 90.8 86.2 95.8 89.2
2012-09 96.6 91.0 97.5 93.5
2012-08 93.6 90.2 95.3 93.3
2012-07 94.4 90.8 95.4 92.1
2012-06 94.9 90.9 95.7 93.5
2012-05 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.7
2012-04 98.9 95.7 94.3 97.6
2012-03 102.4 96.4 103.1 97.0
2012-02 100.4 96.1 93.8 95.8
2012-01 99.7 96.1 94.9 93.9
2011-12 98.4 96.0 100.1 94.4
2011-11 102.0 95.9 102.7 94.0
2011-10 104.3 98.2 100.3 96.2
2011-09 101.7 99.4 98.8 97.9
2011-08 103.4 100.3 101.9 100.2
2011-07 111.3 102.3 103.8 104.8
2011-06 108.4 104.1 109.5 108.7
2011-05 109.6 103.1 105.3 107.6
2011-04 108.8 104.5 106.0 109.9
2011-03 106.5 106.3 106.4 109.6
2011-02 107.2 101.8 99.4 108.3
2011-01 108.9 103.8 105.2 105.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) and [A38 and A64] Weights** (%) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 85 86 86
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 103 98 98
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 4 112 106 104
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 101 97 100
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 98 95 95
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 19 111 111 113
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 103 98 99
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 115 117 120
(C5) Other manufacturing 45 94 95 94
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 96 102 102
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 4 87 91 93
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 91 90 89
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 91 87 88
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 92 97 91
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 10 101 103 104
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sectors’ balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing industry of December 2023 has been revised downwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2023 and 22 January 2024.

Next issue: 22 February 2024 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys related to European harmonisation – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Abbreviated methodology (pdf,157 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

For questions with three possible answers, a balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole of manufacturing industry cannot be deduced from the sub-sectoral climates. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2023 and 22 January 2024.

Next issue: 22 February 2024 at 8:45 am.

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr

Publication calendar

Time series : Industry - Activity and demand

Ouvrir dans un nouvel ongletThe Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS)