Informations Rapides · 19 October 2023 · n° 264

In October 2023, manufacturers have expected a slight withdraw of their selling prices Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2023

In October 2023, business leaders in the manufacturing industry have judged the past evolution of the overall demand less favourably than in July, but the one of the expected demand more favourably. Moreover, the business leaders have estimated that, on average, their selling prices will slightly diminish over the next three months. Finally, production bottlenecks have been judged to be lower than in July and hiring difficulties have a bit reduced although they remain relatively frequent.

In October 2023, the balance of opinion on the past change in overall demand has deteriorated again, as it has done since January 2023. It therefore remains below its long-term average. The one related to the foreign demand has rebounded compared to July, and is above its average. The balances of opinion on the expected change in overall and in foreign demand for the next three months have rebounded in October 2023. This rebound is mainly driven by the “other transport equipment”. However, the balance on the expected change in overall demand remains below its average whereas the one about the foreign demand has gone just above its average.

In October 2023, the share of companies deeming that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders has diminished again: at 28%, it has moved away from its highest level in October 2022, and it has gone closer to its long-period average. Besides, more business leaders than three months ago have considered their production capacities sufficient given the expected change in orders over the coming months. The associated balance of opinion has increased for the third quarter in a row and it has gone closer to its average. The production capacity utilisation rate has slightly straightened up: at 81% it nevertheless remains just below its average level.

In October 2023, the share of companies declaring experiencing hiring difficulties has kept on falling since October 2022. However, these difficulties remain frequent: 57% of the business leaders have declared experiencing them, a much higher proportion than the long-term average.

In October 2023, business leaders have considered, on average, that their selling prices have increased by 0.2% since July 2023. For the next three months, they expect a diminution of their selling prices by 0.2%. It is the first time they have anticipated a quarterly fall since April 2020, at the time of the health crisis.

The balance on the general prospects of change in hourly wages in industry has deteriorated again and then remains below its average.

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has rebounded. It is just below its average.

In manufacturing industry, fewer business leaders in October 2023 than in April 2023 have estimated that their investments will rise in 2023. The associated balances of opinion have been revised downwards in all sub-sectors, especially in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods.

Regarding 2024, manufacturers have made a first judgment on the expected change in their investments: the associated balance of opinion is slightly higher than the one related to the change in 2023. However, the evolutions are contrasted in the sub-sectors, with a high rise in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods.