Informations Rapides ·
26 January 2023 · n° 23
In January 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing
has degraded again Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2023
In January 2023, the developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has deteriorated compared to October: the corresponding balance of opinion has kept decreasing since July 2021.
In January 2023, the developers’ opinion on the demand addressed to them regarding new housing has deteriorated compared to October: the corresponding balance of opinion has kept decreasing since July 2021.
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2023-Q1 | -32.5 |
| 2022-Q4 | -29.6 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
The prospects for housing starts are almost stable
In January 2023, the balance of opinion on the prospect of housing starts is almost stable, above its long term average. In detail, prospects of housing for sale are almost stable while prospects of housing for rent have improved slightly.
Developers are a bit more numerous than in October to report an increase in their unsold dwelling stock. The associated balance of opinion has risen for the third quarter in a row and is above its long term average.
Prospects of evolution for financial means have deteriorated again
In January 2023, the balance of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected average price of new housing for sale has diminished again but remains largely above its long-term average.
Slightly more developers than in October have reported an increase in the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling over the past three months: the corresponding balance of opinion stands way above its long-term average.
Developers are additionally more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospect of evolution of the financial means dedicated to purchasing new housing for the next three months. The associated balance of opinion has kept decreasing since April 2022 and has moved further away from its long term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Average* | Apr. 22 | Jul. 22 | Oct. 22 | Jan. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -10 | -14 | -21 | -30 | -33 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | -5 | -10 | -20 | -19 |
| - for sale | -15 | -11 | -14 | -28 | -29 |
| - for rent | 1 | 5 | -3 | -8 | -4 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -31 | -25 | -23 | -19 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 52 | 54 | 49 | 37 |
| Downpayment | -18 | -3 | -5 | -6 | -1 |
| Financing capacity | -20 | -5 | -15 | -24 | -30 |
- * Average since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December 2022 and 23 January 2023. The response rate remains low, it is comparable to that of last October.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 April 2023 at 12:00 pm
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 December 2022 and 23 January 2023. The response rate remains low, it is comparable to that of last October.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 April 2023 at 12:00 pm