Informations Rapides ·
25 October 2022 · n° 280
In October 2022, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing
has sharply deteriorated again Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2022
In October 2022, more developers than in the previous quarter have considered that the demand addressed to them regarding new housing is weak: the corresponding balance of opinion keeps decreasing and reaches its lowest average since July 2015.
In October 2022, more developers than in the previous quarter have considered that the demand addressed to them regarding new housing is weak: the corresponding balance of opinion keeps decreasing and reaches its lowest average since July 2015.
The prospects for housing starts have dropped again
In October 2022, the balance of opinion on expected housing starts during the next quarter decreases again and falls below its long-term average. Prospect for housing have diminished for both homes for sale as for those to rent.
In the meantime, developers are more numerous than in July to report an increase in their unsold dwellings stock. The associated balance of opinion is above its average.
Prospects of evolution for financial means have deteriorated
In October 2022, the balance of opinion associated with the average price of new housing for sale diminishes slightly but remains at a very high level, way above its long-term period.
Regarding financing, developers believe that the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling has slightly diminished over the past three months. The corresponding balance of opinion stands way above its long-term average nonetheless. Additionally, developers are clearly more pessimistic than in the previous quarter regarding the prospect of evolution of the financial means dedicated to purchasing new housing for the next three month. The corresponding balance of opinion decreases sharply and now stands below its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | Jan. 22 | Apr. 22 | Jul. 22 | Oct. 22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -10 | -4 | -14 | -21 | -28 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | 5 | -5 | -10 | -20 |
| - for sale | -15 | -6 | -11 | -14 | -27 |
| - for rent | 1 | 23 | 5 | -3 | -9 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -26 | -31 | -25 | -23 |
| Housing average price for sale | 8 | 49 | 52 | 54 | 49 |
| Downpayment | -18 | 0 | -3 | -5 | -6 |
| Financing capacity | -20 | 1 | -5 | -15 | -24 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- NA : not available
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2022-Q4 | -28.3 |
| 2022-Q3 | -21.3 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 September 2022 and 19 October 2022. The response rate is slightly higher than in last July’s survey, but is still lower than usual.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 27 January 2023 at 12:00 pm
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 September 2022 and 19 October 2022. The response rate is slightly higher than in last July’s survey, but is still lower than usual.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 27 January 2023 at 12:00 pm