Informations Rapides · 20 October 2022 · n° 272

In October 2022, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly bounced back Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2022

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2022, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has slightly bounced back after three consecutive months of decrease. At 103, the composite indicator has won one point and stays above its average (100). The balances of opinion related to the past as well as expected change in production and to the level of the order-books have contributed positively to this slight rebound. The indicator of perceived economic uncertainty has nevertheless remained high.

In October 2022, the balances of opinion on the overall and foreign order-books have bounced back after three consecutive months of decrease. They remain above their average.

Business managers have considered that their finished-goods inventory has been very high compared to the normal. The associated balance of opinion has reached its highest level in the manufacturing industry since 2009, as well as in the manufacture of transport equipment and in the “other industries”. However, it remains distinctly under its average in the manufacture of food products and beverages.

The balance of opinion associated to the economic uncertainty felt by the business managers has been almost stable and remains high.

Business leaders’ opinion on their production has improved. The balance of opinion on their three months prospects of activity has bounced back and moves away from its average. The one on the last three months production has grown for the second month in a row and exceeds its average. Yet, the business leaders have judged that the general prospects of production in the industry have slightly degraded, the balance of opinion falls just under its average.

The share of companies declaring supply difficulties has diminished for the third month in a row. In October, 37% of enterprises have declared suffering from them, a share that remains largely above its long-term average. The proportion of companies declaring that they have been limited in their production by a lack of personnel has been stable at 23%, also well above its average.

The balance related to the expected trend in selling prices during the next three months has declined again but remains well above its average.

Between September and October 2022, the indicator of the business climate in the fabrication of transport equipment has won 7 points and moves above its average, driven by the rise of the balances on the overall as well as foreign order-books. In the manufacture of motor vehicles, the business climate has clearly brightened up. The associated indicator has overpassed its average, thanks in particular to the improvement in the balance of opinion on the past production. In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the indicator of the business climate evolves above its average since the beginning of the year.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the indicator of the business climate has slightly grown. The balance of opinion on the personal production expectations has increased and overpasses its average. The supply difficulties have loosened there for the second month in a row.

The business climate in the branch of machinery and equipment goods has improved more distinctly. The corresponding indicator evolves well above its average. In the sub-sector of computer, electronic and optical products, the climate even reaches its highest level since 2003, notably driven by the balance of opinion on the level of the overall order-books.

Conversely, the business climate in the branch of the so-called “other industries” has worsened. The synthetic indicator, generally declining since the end of 2021, has further deteriorated and moves away from its average. The balance of opinion on the production during the last three months reaches its lowest level since August 2020. In the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, the synthetic indicator has been under its average since four months and reaches its lowest level since November 2020, due mainly to a deterioration of the business leaders’ opinion on the foreign order-books. In the manufacture of rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products, the indicator of climate reaches its lowest level since July 2020, due mainly to the stark decline of the balance of opinion on the overall order-books.

The business climate in manufacturing industry of September 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).