Informations Rapides ·
26 July 2022 · n° 194
In July 2022, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing has
kept on deteriorating Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - July 2022
In July 2022, far more real estate developers than in the previous quarter have considered the demand for new housing addressed to them to be low: the corresponding balance of opinion has decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter and has gone further away from its long-term average.
The statistics published in this issue of “Informations rapides” may be less accurate than usual, due to a lower response rate this month.
In July 2022, far more real estate developers than in the previous quarter have considered the demand for new housing addressed to them to be low: the corresponding balance of opinion has decreased for the fifth consecutive quarter and has gone further away from its long-term average.
The prospects for housing starts have decreased again
In July 2022, fewer developers than in April are expecting a rise in housing starts over the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has gone back clearly again and has dropped below its long-term average. The drop in housing starts concerns as much the homes for sale as those to rent.
At the same time, more developers than in April have reported an increase in their unsold dwellings stock: the balance related to the change in unsold stocks has bounced back and has found back its long-term average.
Real estate developers still consider purchase prices as dynamic
In July 2022, barely more real estate developers than in April have reported an increase in the average price of new housing for sale during the previous quarter. The corresponding balance of opinion is virtually stable and stands at its highest level since October 2004.
Regarding financing, developers believe that the average down payment brought by applicants for the acquisition of a new dwelling has slightly diminished over the last three months. Indeed the corresponding balance of opinion has pulled back for the second consecutive quarter, although it stands well above its long-term average. Besides, far fewer developers than in the previous quarter think that the financial means dedicated to purchasing new housing will increase over the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has decreased again and has got closer to its long-term average.
tableauReal-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | Oct. 21 | Jan. 22 | Apr. 22 | Jul. 22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | -9 | -2 | -4 | -14 | -23 |
| Expected housing starts | -7 | -7 | 5 | -5 | -11 |
| - for sale | -15 | -18 | -6 | -11 | -15 |
| - for rent | 1 | 13 | 23 | 5 | -2 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | -26 | -30 | -26 | -31 | -26 |
| Housing average price for sale | 7 | 39 | 49 | 52 | 53 |
| Downpayment | -19 | -1 | 0 | -3 | -4 |
| Financing capacity | -20 | -2 | 1 | -5 | -15 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- NA : not available
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
tableauNew dwelling demand tendency
| New dwelling demand tendency | |
|---|---|
| 2022-Q3 | -23.2 |
| 2022-Q2 | -14.0 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.3 |
| 2021-Q4 | -1.9 |
| 2021-Q3 | -0.9 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.7 |
| 2021-Q1 | -15.0 |
| 2020-Q4 | -17.5 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2019-Q3 | -12.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | -19.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -25.2 |
| 2018-Q4 | -20.1 |
| 2018-Q3 | -15.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -11.1 |
| 2018-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2017-Q4 | -4.3 |
| 2017-Q3 | -2.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -3.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.8 |
| 2016-Q4 | -5.1 |
| 2016-Q3 | -9.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | -11.9 |
| 2016-Q1 | -26.1 |
| 2015-Q4 | -26.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -28.1 |
| 2015-Q2 | -36.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -46.0 |
| 2014-Q4 | -51.8 |
| 2014-Q3 | -53.3 |
| 2014-Q2 | -45.7 |
| 2014-Q1 | -44.4 |
| 2013-Q4 | -42.1 |
| 2013-Q3 | -42.8 |
| 2013-Q2 | -47.7 |
| 2013-Q1 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q4 | -47.7 |
| 2012-Q3 | -42.1 |
| 2012-Q2 | -33.6 |
| 2012-Q1 | -24.6 |
| 2011-Q4 | -22.7 |
| 2011-Q3 | -20.8 |
| 2011-Q2 | -15.1 |
| 2011-Q1 | -10.2 |
| 2010-Q4 | -0.3 |
| 2010-Q3 | -6.5 |
| 2010-Q2 | -8.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-Q4 | -8.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -10.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -13.8 |
| 2009-Q1 | -26.7 |
| 2008-Q4 | -33.1 |
| 2008-Q3 | -13.4 |
| 2008-Q2 | -13.7 |
| 2008-Q1 | -7.0 |
| 2007-Q4 | -1.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.4 |
| 2007-Q1 | 9.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueNew dwelling demand tendency
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 June 2022 and 21 July 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2022 at 12:00 am
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 27 June 2022 and 21 July 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 October 2022 at 12:00 am