Informations Rapides · 22 April 2021 · n° 101

In April 2021, the business climate in the industry has improved markedly and crossed its long-term average  Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2021

According to the industrialists surveyed in April 2021, the business climate has improved markedly this month. It has gained 5 points to settle at 104, going back above its long-term average (100) for the first time since February 2020. This increase has been driven in particular by the pronounced increase in the balances of opinion on order books. The past trend in production has also contributed to enhancing the climate, as has the rebound in personal production prospects. The business climate has improved in all major industrial branches.

The opinion of industrialists on the level of their order books has improved markedly in April 2021, whether for overall order books or for those coming from abroad. These two balances, which had stagnated last month and remained deteriorated, have increased sharply this month. The balance on overall order books has returned above its long-term average and has reached its highest level since February 2020. The balance on foreign order books has risen to the same extent but remains below its average.

Manufacturers also have judged more favorably the development in their recent production. The associated balance of opinion has increased again, much more clearly than in March, and is now well above its average. To a lesser extent, personal prospects of production have been brightening. The corresponding balance has recovered and further surpassed its long-term average.

Nevertheless, manufacturers have been slightly less optimistic than the previous month on general production expectations in industry. However, this balance has remained above its average.

The balance relative to the level of inventory compared to normal has been stable, well below its long-term average.

The opinion of manufacturers on the expected development in their selling prices over the next three months has been unchanged compared to the previous month. This balance, which had increased sharply since October 2020, has remained well above its long-term average.

Finally, regarding employment, manufacturers have worsened their opinion on the past change in the workforce size: the associated balance of opinion has returned to its average level. The drop has been more moderate for the balance of opinion on the expected change in the workforce size, which has remained above its average.

After two months of weak growth, the business climate in the manufacturing of machinery and equipment goods has jumped by 7 points. At 115, it has reached the highest level among all the industry's branches, well above its average (100). In particular, the climate in the manufacturing of electrical equipment has increased by 11 points and reached a level unseen since November 2000. The business climate has also improved in the manufacturing of food products and beverages (+5 points, to 107).

In the branch known as the other manufacturing industries, the rise in the business climate has been more moderate (+3 points, to 108) but this indicator had already been moving above its long-term level since December 2020. It is the only branch in which the balance on foreign order books has contributed more to the climate increase than the balance on overall order books. The increase has been particularly pronounced in the manufacturing of rubber and plastic products and in the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products.

Finally, the climate in the manufacturing of transport equipment has rebounded in April 2021 (+5 points), but remains at a degraded level (90). The increase is especially pronounced in the branch of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+4 points), although the climate has also recovered, slightly (+1 point), in the branch known as the manufacturing of other transport equipment. However, it has remained very deteriorated in the latter.

The business climate in manufacturing in March 2021 has been revised upwards by one point, mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from some companies.