17 December 2020

2020- n° 323

In December 2020, the business climate has bounced back very strongly in retail trade and in trade and repair of vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - December 2020

In December 2020, in the context of the gradual relaxation of the health measures taken to stem the second wave of COVID-19, the business climate has recovered very strongly in the retail trade and the trade and repair of automobiles. At 95, the indicator that synthesizes it has gained 23 points and returned to its level before the second lockdown, last October. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).

In December 2020, all the balances of opinion relating to economic activity over the near future have picked up sharply, whether it is the general business outlook for the sector, ordering intentions or expected sales. The balance on the general outlook has returned above its long-term average, those on expected sales and on ordering intentions are very close to their own. Conversely, the balance of opinion on recent sales has fallen sharply this month and has moved back well below its average. The one on the level of stocks has increased again while that on the forecast prices is virtually stable. These two balances stand at their long-term average level.

In December 2020, the opinion of business leaders on the expected development of their workforce size over the next three months has improved markedly; however, the corresponding balance did not return to its level before the second confinement. The balance on recent changes in the workforce has fallen back. These two balances stand well below their average.

In December 2020, in retail trade, the business climate has bounced back strongly. At 85, it has gained 16 points after dropping by 19 points in the previous month, but remains well below his average (100).

Most of the balances summarizing the expectations of business leaders for the next three months have bounced back strongly: general business outlook for the sector, ordering intentions, expected sales, expected workforce size. The first three are close to their average, even exceed it, when the one on expected workforce size remains far from it.

The increase in the balance of opinion on expected sales is particularly marked in specialized retail, in connection with the reopening of "non-essential" stores at the end of November. However, this balance remains below its average in this sub-sector.

The balance on the expected development in selling prices is stable, slightly above its average. The one on the level of stocks has risen again slightly and stands just below its own.

The balance of opinion on recent sales has fallen back sharply, more markedly in specialized trade than in non-specialized trade and has returned significantly below its average. That on recent workforce size has declined, deviating further from its average.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has bounced back strongly: it has gained 17 points after losing 19 points in the previous month. At 99, it is close to its average (100).

The main balances relating to the expectations of business leaders have bounced back very strongly: general business outlook for the sector, forecast sales, ordering intentions. The balance on the general business outlook has almost reached its long-term average, while the other two are above theirs.

The balances of opinion on the level of stocks, on the expected selling prices and on the expected workforce size have increased more slightly. The one on the level of stocks have exceeded its average slightly, the other two remain below theirs.

The balance of opinion on recent sales has fallen and is once again below its average. That on recent workforce size is stable, above its own.

The subsectoral business climate in retail trade for November 2020 has been revised upwards by one point. This revision is mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from businesses.