22 January 2020

2020- n° 16

In January 2020, the business climate has deteriorated clearly in retail trade Monthly survey of retailing - January 2020

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has deteriorated clearly in January 2020. At 104, the composite indicator that measures it has lost four points but is still above its long-term average (100). This deterioration mainly concerns the general business outlook and the ordering intentions.

In January 2020, the balance of opinion of business managers on the general business outlook on their sector has dropped again, much more strongly than in December, while remaining above its long-term average. The balance on recent sales has increased significantly, deviating further from its average. In the opposite way, the balance on expected sales has fallen and moved below its average. The one on ordering intentions has backed down sharply but remains above average. The balance on stocks has gone down slightly again and stands below its average. The one on past selling prices, bimonthly, has increased again and stands above its own. The balance on expected selling prices has fallen back while remaining slightly above its average.

The one on cash position, bimonthly, is stable above its own.

In January 2020, the balance of opinion of business managers about the recent development in employment has fallen back and remains below its long-term averageIt has fallen in both retail trade and trade and repair of motor cars. In trade and repair of motor cars, this balance of opinion remains slightly above its long-term average, while moving away from it in retail trade. Regarding expected employment trends, the balance of opinion has increased slightly again in January and is closer to its long-term average. It has increased both in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor cars. In trade and repair of motor cars, this balance of opinion has exceeded more largely its long-term average while remaining below its average in retail trade.

In January, in retail trade, the business climate has deteriorated strongly. At 96, the composite indicator has fallen by three points and has moved away its long-term mean (100). This deterioration is mainly due to a decline in optimism about ordering intentions, general business outlook and recent trend on workforce size. Retailers' balance of opinion on recent sales has increased significantly, largely due to non-specialised retail trade, and is well above its long-term average.

Retailers' balance of opinion on expected sales has fallen sharply again, moving below its average. It has fallen in both non-specialised and specialised retail trade. Retailers' balance of opinion on ordering intentions has dropped significantly, particularly in non-specialised retail trade, and has moved below its average. The balance of opinion of retailers on their stocks has fallen again, due to the specialised retail trade, and has deviated further from its average. Retailers' balance of opinion on past selling prices has been up significantly from November and stands above average.

That on expected selling prices has fallen back compared to December and has returned to its long-term average. The balance of opinion on the cash position, bimonthly, has fallen very slightly while remaining above average.

In January, in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, the business climate indicator has risen slightly. At 109, it is significantly above its long-term average (100). The increase in balances on expected workforce and past selling sales is offset by the decline in those on the general outlook for activity and the recent trend of workforce size. The balance of opinion on past selling prices, bimonthly, has fallen back sharply, as has done, to a lesser extent, the monthly balance on stocks. The other balances are stable or have hardly changed.