19 December 2019

2019- n° 330

In December 2019, the business climate is stable in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - December 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2019, the business climate in industry is stable compared to November. The composite indicator stands at 102, above its long term average level (100). Besides, business climate in industry for November 2019 has been revised upwards by two points (see section ‘Revisions’).

In December 2019, the balance of opinion on past production has increased again and thus reached its highest level since February 2019. The improvement is even sharper regarding the balance on personal production prospects, which has exceeded this month its long-term average. However, the balance on general production prospects has worsened markedly, but it stays slightly above its long-term average.

The industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has deteriorated after a sharp improvement in November. The associated balance has fallen back but stays above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on foreign order books has also faltered a little and deviated slightly from its average.

The balance of opinion regarding finished-good inventories is stable in December after a sharp rebound in November. It stays thus above its long-term average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past and expected variations has worsened. Both indicators stands nevertheless above their long-term average.

The turning point indicator stays in the area indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The business climate in the agrofood industry has increased sharply in december after three consecutive months of deterioration : it has gained six points up to 108 and has nearly caught up with its August level (109), largely above its long-term average. This increase is explained particularly by the improvement in the balances of opinion on past production and on overall order books. Only the balance on general production prospects has declined this month.

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has declined very slightly in December. At 97, it stays below its long-term average.

The composite indicator has lost three points in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products due to the decline in the balance of opinion on order books. At 106, it stays however above its long-term average. The business climate has barely declined in the manufacture of electrical equipments (95) and has increased slightly in the manufacture of machinery and equipments (94). In both these subsectors, the composite indicators stay below their long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has gained one point in December. At 106, it has almost reached its August 2018 level.

In the automotive industry, the business climate has kept increasing for the third month consecutively (98) and has been approaching progressively its long-term average. This rise is explained mainly by the improvement in the balance on past production.

In the manufacture of other transport equipments, the business climate is almost unchanged (111), at its highest level since April 2012. The balance of opinion on the foreign order books has contributed positively to the composite indicator variation.

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the busines climate has lost two points in December, after a rebound in the previous month. At 98, the indicator has slid below its long-term average.

The business climate has decreased in almost all activities. This decline first concerns the « other manufacturing industries » and the rubber and plastic industry, that has each lost five points due to deterioration in the balance on order books. The business climate has also declined, but more moderately, in the wood-paper-printing industry (102) and the clothing-textiles industry (110). The composite indicator has decreased a little in chemicals (97). It is still as deteriorated as in the previous month in the manufacture of basics metals and metal products (93).

On November, the business survey collection platform was unavailable for a few days, an incident that particularly affected the business survey in industry. The results for November 2019 are therefore more revised than usual due to late responses. In addition, some companies that were added to the renewed sample in July 2019 responded for the first time in November. All in all, the business climate in industry for November 2019 has been revised upwards by two points.