25 October 2019

2019- n° 277

In October 2019, real estate developers' opinion on demand for new dwellings continues to improve Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2019

In October 2019, more real estate developers than in July deem that the demand for new dwellings is high. The corresponding balance of opinion has increased for the third consecutive quarter, and has exceeded for the first time since January 2018 its long-term average.

In October 2019, the prospects for housing starts for the next three months have improved significantly. The corresponding balance exceed, for the first time for two years, its long-term average. In detail, the balance on housing starts for sale has decreased, but remains above its long-term average while that on housing starts for rent has risen sharply and has gone largely above its own. At the same time, less developers than in July 2019 have indicated an increase in unsold dwelling stocks. The corresponding balance has fallen back and has returned below its long-term average.

More real estate developers than in July have indicated a rise in the average price of new dwellings for sale; the corresponding balance of opinion, at its highest level since April 2007, has increased for the third consecutive quarter and has exceeded even more its long-term average. About funding, more developers than in July consider that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has increased during the last few months: the corresponding balance has risen again and has stood above its long-term average for several quarters. Likewise, more developers than in the previous quarter think that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will increase over the next quarter. The corresponding balance of opinion has increased again sharply and stands largely above its long-term average, at its highest level since October 2016.