23 October 2019

2019- n° 271

In October 2019, the business climate has deteriorated in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2019, the business climate in industry has deteriorated compared to September. The composite indicator has lost three points to 99, moving just below its long term average (100).

In October 2019, the balance of opinion on overall order books has decline sharply, following two months of improvement. The indicator has lost four points, but still stay above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on foreign order books has dropped by five points, falling below its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on the past production has also lost five points, and stands largely below its average. The industrialists are also less optimistic on the general production prospects : the associate balance opinion has lost four points while remaining above its long-term average. Industrialists’ balance of opinion on their own prospects is steady but stands slightly above its average.

The balance opinion regarding finished-goods inventories has fallen back and recovered to its August level, that is to its average, after a marked improvement in September.

Considering employment, the balances opinion on their past variation and perspectives have declined slightly. Both indicators stand however largely above their long-term average.

The turning-point indicator has moved down into the area indicating an uncertain economic outlook.

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has declined again: it has lost two points in October. At 106, it stands however markedly above its long-term average. This deterioration is explained by the sharp fall in the balance of opinion on the order books. Conversely, the balances of opinion on past production and personal activity prospects have improved.

In the manufacture of equipment goods, the business climate has lost three points and moved below its long-term average (97).

In the in the electrical equipment and in the machinery and equipment branches, the balances of opinion have get worse, more sharply than in September, to stand significantly below their average. On the other hand, in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, the business climate has still improved slightly, well above its average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has lost two points in October, after a stability in the previous month, and stands slightly below its long-term average.

The climate indicator has decreased again in the automotive industry and has practically returned to the low point of July. The balance of opinion on general production prospects contributes the most sharply to this deterioration.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate indicator has lost three points but stands below its long-term average. This fall is due to the decline in the balances of opinion on overall and foreign order books.

In the overall « other manufacturing » industry, the business climate has decreased by two points to stand just below its long-term average.

The business climate has deteriorated in almost all subsectors, particularly in chemicals where the deterioration is the most significant. In this subsector, as in basic metals, the business climate indicator stands largely below its long-term average. To a lesser extent, the business climates has declined also in « other manufacturing industries », clothing-textiles as well as rubber and plastic industry, albeit standing above its long-term average. The business climate is virtually stable in wood-paper-printing.