24 September 2019

2019- n° 244

In September 2019, the business climate is almost unchanged in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2019, the business climate in industry is practically stable as compared to August. At 102, it is above its average (100).

Besides, the August 2019 business climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point as a result of the integration of late business responses.

In September 2019, the balance of opinion on overall order books has increased for the second consecutive month, after having reached its lowest level over four years in July. It has gained two points and has moved further away from its long-term average. Likewise, the balance of opinion on export books has risen again after having reached a five-year low point last June. It has gained one point and stays above its long-term average.

The industrialists are more optimistic than in the previous month on the general production prospects for the sector as a whole: the corresponding balance of opinion has increased by two points, well above its long-term average. However, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on their personal production expectations has faltered after a two month rise and stands just above its long-term average. The balance of opinion on past activity has lost one point and fallen just below its long-term average.

The balance of opinion regarding finished-goods inventories has recovered to its July level, slightly above its average.

As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has bounced back while the one on expected workforce size has increased a bit again. Both remain significantly above their long-term average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has lost one point after a vigorous rebound in August. At 108, it stays distinctly above its long-term average. The climate deterioration is due to the fall in the balance on past activity. By contrast, the balance regarding overall order books has improved.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable, at its normal level.

In the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, the business climate has sharply recovered after a decline in August and remains well above its long-term average. Conversely, the climate has slightly worsened again in the electrical equipment branch and in the machinery and equipment, where it stands below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has gained one point. At 102, it stands just above its long-term average.

The climate indicator has risen again in the automotive industry after having reached in July its lowest level since May 2013. However, it has not recovered to its June level and remains below average. The improvement in the balances of opinion on past production and overall order books is partially offset by the fall in the balance on personal production expectations.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate indicator has been rising for four consecutive month, well above its average. In September the rise is due to an improvement in the balance on export books.

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » industry is stable at 102, above its average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has increased in the chemicals industry. Conversely, it has shrunk in clothing-textiles, rubber and plastic industry, basic metals and in “other manufacturing industries”. It is stable in wood-paper-printing. It stands above its long-term average in most of the subsectors, except in rubber and plastic industry and in basic metals.