24 July 2019

2019- n° 188

In July 2019, the business climate has slightly recovered in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - July 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly recovered in July 2019. The composite indicator that measures it stands at 105, above its long-term average (100).

In July 2019, more business managers than in June have planned to increase their orders for the next three months. The associated balance of opinion has recovered and has moved above its mean. In contrast, they are less optimistic concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has faltered but is still above its mean. The balance of opinion on expected sales has sharply edged down and has gone down below its mean whereas that on past sales has improved and has moved above its own. The balance of opinion concerning stocks has decreased and has moved below its mean. The balance of opinion on expected prices has bounced back and has moved just above its mean. That on past prices has slightly decreased but remains above its own. The cash position is estimated a little more favourable than in May: the corresponding balance has slightly improved and has moved just above its mean.

More managers than in June have reported a rise in their staff size during the last three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has improved due to retail trade but remains just below its mean. Concerning expected employment, slightly less business managers than in June have indicated expecting an increase in their staff size during the next three months. The corresponding balance has slightly decreased and remains below its mean, at its lowest level since October 2016.

In retail trade, the business climate has improved: the composite indicator has gainedthree points in July, to 99, just below its long-term mean (100).

The balance on ordering intentions has sharply bounced back and has moved just above its long-term mean. More retailers than in June have indicated anincrease in their past sales. The corresponding balance has risen for the fourth consecutive month and stands just below its mean. However, far fewer retailers have reported an increase in their expected sales, the corresponding balance of opinion has clearly slipped back and has moved further from its mean. More retailers than in June have pointed out stocks below normal, the corresponding balance has decreased and has returned below its mean.

Retailers as a whole are a little less optimistic than in June concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance has decreased but is still above its long-term mean. More retailers than in the previous month have planned to rise their prices: the corresponding balance has bounced back and has returned to its mean. Almost as many retailers as in May have indicated having risen their prices, the corresponding balance has slightly decreased but is still above its mean. The cashposition is estimateda little more favourable than in May: the corresponding balance has slightly increased and has moved just above its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has lost one point in July. At 108, it remains largely above its long-term average (100).

The balance on general business outlook has edged down but remains above its mean. Business managers are alsoless optimistic than last month concerning their own activity. Indeed, the balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have faltered. However, both of them remain above their long-term mean. Concerning the past few months, the balance of opinion on recent sales has sharply improvedandstands above its mean, at its highest level since September 2018.

Stocks are deemed a little less high than in June: the corresponding balance has slightly decreased and stands below its mean, at its lowest level since September 2015. The balance of opinion on expected prices has decreased for the third consecutive month and has returned to its mean. That on past prices has weakened and has returned to its mean. The cash position is deemed more favourable than in May, the associated balance of opinion has increased and remains above its mean.