Informations rapides
24 July 2019
2019- n° 184
In July 2019, the business climate has again slightly deteriorated in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2019, the business climate in industry has slightly deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost one point and has declined for the second consecutive month. At 101, it gets closer to its average (100).

Informations rapides
No 184
Paru le :Paru le24/07/2019
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025
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Warning

The sample of businesses has been renewed in July 2019. To avoid structural effects, the monthly balances are systematically calculated on the same set of businesses from one month to the next. That is why this operation can lead to a higher stability of the indicators in July, businesses entering the sample are taken into account next month to compute the indicators. Moreover, the seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicator have also been updated. As a result, the set of results previously published from this survey is subject to slight revisions.

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2019, the business climate in industry has slightly deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost one point and has declined for the second consecutive month. At 101, it gets closer to its average (100).

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.2
1998-03 117.1
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.9
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.8
1998-11 103.9
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 101.9
1999-03 96.8
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.6
1999-06 99.5
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.3
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.7
2000-03 119.9
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.3
2000-06 124.2
2000-07 121.3
2000-08 121.4
2000-09 121.2
2000-10 120.0
2000-11 118.1
2000-12 114.2
2001-01 112.9
2001-02 113.0
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.6
2001-09 95.4
2001-10 94.9
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.3
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.4
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.7
2002-11 96.4
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.8
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.5
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.4
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.4
2004-03 103.5
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.6
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.0
2004-12 103.2
2005-01 103.2
2005-02 103.0
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.0
2005-06 98.9
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 103.0
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 106.3
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.4
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.0
2007-06 111.1
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 86.9
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 73.1
2009-01 72.2
2009-02 68.1
2009-03 66.2
2009-04 70.2
2009-05 72.0
2009-06 74.7
2009-07 76.1
2009-08 80.7
2009-09 83.8
2009-10 85.0
2009-11 87.5
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-03 91.0
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.7
2010-07 97.1
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.7
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.1
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.1
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.5
2011-12 94.6
2012-01 94.9
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.4
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 93.0
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.6
2012-10 87.0
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.8
2013-01 89.7
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.6
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.6
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.0
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.2
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.3
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.8
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.5
2015-08 103.6
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.2
2015-12 102.4
2016-01 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.7
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.6
2016-09 103.3
2016-10 102.0
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.8
2017-02 106.7
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.8
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.2
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 113.4
2018-02 112.4
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 109.9
2018-06 109.5
2018-07 108.5
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 104.9
2018-12 102.9
2019-01 103.0
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.6
2019-05 103.9
2019-06 101.7
2019-07 100.7

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Apr. 19 May 19 June 19 July 19
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 102 104 102 101
Past activity 5 1 3 8 7
Finished-goods inventory 12 16 9 9 13
Overall order books -18 -13 -9 -13 -16
Export order books -14 -10 -9 -17 -15
Past workforce size -10 6 2 1 -1
Expected workforce size -11 2 0 -1 -2
Personal production expectations 5 9 12 6 6
General production expectations -8 -1 3 2 0
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The industrialists’ optimism on activity has moderated a little more

In July 2019, industrialists are less optimistic than in the previous month on the general production prospects for the sector as a whole : the corresponding balance of opinion has fallen by two points but remains above its long-term average. However, the balances of opinion on past activity and on their personal production expectations is stable or virtually stable and remain slightly above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on overall order books has again picked down and reached its lowest level since July 2015. It has lost three points and gets closer to its long-term average. Conversely, the balance of opinion on export books has raised. It has increased by two points after a sharp decline in the previous month, but it remains below its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the uncertainty area.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.13
2010-02 -0.57
2010-03 -0.09
2010-04 0.22
2010-05 0.2
2010-06 0.08
2010-07 0.12
2010-08 0.57
2010-09 0.86
2010-10 0.92
2010-11 -0.39
2010-12 0.72
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.75
2011-03 0.82
2011-04 0.68
2011-05 0.44
2011-06 0.61
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.97
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.62
2011-12 -0.86
2012-01 -0.91
2012-02 -0.68
2012-03 0.07
2012-04 -0.23
2012-05 -0.24
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.88
2012-08 0.35
2012-09 0.26
2012-10 -0.77
2012-11 0.51
2012-12 0.13
2013-01 0.03
2013-02 -0.03
2013-03 -0.23
2013-04 -0.91
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.56
2013-07 0.87
2013-08 0.95
2013-09 0.83
2013-10 0.79
2013-11 0.26
2013-12 0.88
2014-01 0.95
2014-02 0.74
2014-03 0.95
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.62
2014-06 0.37
2014-07 0.46
2014-08 0.43
2014-09 0.58
2014-10 0.58
2014-11 0.85
2014-12 0.72
2015-01 0.65
2015-02 0.55
2015-03 0.83
2015-04 0.8
2015-05 0.61
2015-06 0.57
2015-07 0.84
2015-08 0.94
2015-09 0.82
2015-10 0.09
2015-11 0.03
2015-12 0.2
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.6
2016-03 0.56
2016-04 0.61
2016-05 0.43
2016-06 -0.09
2016-07 -0.03
2016-08 0.0
2016-09 0.28
2016-10 0.26
2016-11 0.34
2016-12 0.76
2017-01 0.65
2017-02 0.72
2017-03 -0.54
2017-04 0.23
2017-05 0.36
2017-06 0.36
2017-07 0.47
2017-08 0.53
2017-09 0.84
2017-10 0.81
2017-11 0.71
2017-12 0.83
2018-01 0.97
2018-02 0.79
2018-03 0.05
2018-04 0.42
2018-05 -0.17
2018-06 -0.01
2018-07 -0.11
2018-08 0.13
2018-09 0.14
2018-10 0.06
2018-11 0.27
2018-12 -0.3
2019-01 0.37
2019-02 0.48
2019-03 0.5
2019-04 -0.1
2019-05 0.79
2019-06 0.14
2019-07 0.04

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

In the agrofood industry, the business climate has dropped

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has dropped by four points for the second consecutive month. However, at 104, it remains above its long-term average. This decline mainly comes from the decrease in the balances on overall and export order books.

The business climate has picked up in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has picked up after having lost five points in June. At 102, it has come back above its long-term average. This raise is mainly due to the increase in order book balances.

The business climate has sharply picked up and in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, and in the machinery and equipment. However, it has slightly decreased in the electrical equipment branch, where it has moved below its lon-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has slightly faltered

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has again faltered and has reached its lowest level since October 2014. At 99, it has moved below its long-term average (100).

The climate indicator has sharply fallen in the automotive industry, at its lowest level since May 2013. This decline mainly comes from the decrease in the balances on overall order book and on past production.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate has raised by two points. At 106, it stands above its average.

The business climate continues to weaken in « other manufacturing »

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » industry has again dipped : the corresponding balance has lost one point and stands at its long-term average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has declined in rubber and plastic industry, in the « other manufacturing industries », in basic metals and in chemicals. In the latter two subsectors, it has reached its lowest level since summer 2013. Conversely, it has increased in wood-paper-printing and in clothing-textiles.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.4 105.0 105.0 105.0
2011-02 107.6 103.1 99.5 108.2
2011-03 106.7 107.4 106.0 109.5
2011-04 108.8 105.4 105.6 109.8
2011-05 109.5 104.0 105.0 107.4
2011-06 108.6 105.1 109.2 108.7
2011-07 111.1 103.1 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.5 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.9 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.3 98.6 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.3 96.3 102.0 93.9
2011-12 98.2 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.8 96.4 94.7 93.9
2012-02 100.4 96.3 93.4 95.7
2012-03 102.1 97.0 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.1 96.4 93.8 97.7
2012-05 93.7 95.0 94.7 95.7
2012-06 94.9 91.3 95.4 93.4
2012-07 94.8 91.1 94.9 92.1
2012-08 93.8 90.6 95.0 93.3
2012-09 96.7 91.3 96.8 93.4
2012-10 91.2 86.2 95.4 89.2
2012-11 98.4 87.5 92.5 92.1
2012-12 98.9 88.0 92.1 91.7
2013-01 97.7 88.0 92.2 91.0
2013-02 98.1 89.0 94.1 90.1
2013-03 94.1 89.3 93.6 91.1
2013-04 91.9 90.0 92.6 89.1
2013-05 91.8 90.0 94.6 91.7
2013-06 92.7 89.5 94.6 93.1
2013-07 92.3 90.1 98.6 94.8
2013-08 95.4 92.2 101.2 97.0
2013-09 95.0 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.6 90.8 103.5 97.6
2013-11 98.2 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.7 92.2 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.6 91.7 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.2 94.3 97.8 98.1
2014-03 99.9 93.2 100.5 102.2
2014-04 95.9 92.9 102.6 99.9
2014-05 98.0 94.1 98.1 99.2
2014-06 96.0 92.2 97.9 98.4
2014-07 97.1 89.8 99.1 98.8
2014-08 95.4 93.8 97.6 100.4
2014-09 94.5 92.6 100.6 97.0
2014-10 95.8 92.9 97.1 98.3
2014-11 96.4 92.6 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.1 92.6 99.6 99.9
2015-01 103.2 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.5 95.5 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.8 94.5 105.0 99.8
2015-04 104.5 97.1 106.8 100.4
2015-05 102.3 97.6 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.2 97.6 105.0 100.7
2015-07 108.8 98.8 104.7 102.6
2015-08 103.5 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.5 96.6 108.8 102.4
2015-10 104.3 98.7 107.6 99.6
2015-11 102.3 100.1 107.6 99.2
2015-12 99.8 98.5 107.6 101.4
2016-01 101.8 101.1 107.9 99.1
2016-02 100.2 101.1 108.8 99.7
2016-03 101.8 99.7 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.6 100.7 109.0 101.0
2016-05 103.5 98.0 105.9 103.6
2016-06 103.3 97.7 105.7 101.3
2016-07 104.6 98.2 105.0 101.5
2016-08 99.5 98.6 103.7 101.3
2016-09 108.5 98.9 105.0 100.3
2016-10 106.6 97.9 105.6 100.9
2016-11 107.7 100.2 102.2 101.1
2016-12 108.3 104.0 104.3 104.4
2017-01 104.1 102.9 106.5 105.0
2017-02 105.6 104.3 106.2 106.1
2017-03 104.6 105.3 105.4 104.6
2017-04 103.8 107.7 105.9 107.7
2017-05 106.2 109.3 105.4 107.1
2017-06 111.8 108.8 105.0 108.3
2017-07 108.8 109.4 108.1 106.7
2017-08 109.1 107.1 108.4 108.3
2017-09 106.9 107.7 109.2 108.3
2017-10 111.1 109.9 108.4 110.0
2017-11 112.2 110.0 109.1 110.8
2017-12 110.7 111.5 110.0 110.1
2018-01 111.3 113.1 111.9 110.6
2018-02 110.3 111.2 112.0 109.9
2018-03 109.6 110.5 111.3 109.2
2018-04 109.7 110.6 112.5 107.6
2018-05 108.2 111.5 108.0 107.7
2018-06 110.0 108.3 109.7 105.6
2018-07 108.1 108.6 105.9 106.5
2018-08 108.2 108.4 106.5 105.8
2018-09 106.8 107.6 104.9 104.7
2018-10 102.5 107.2 103.5 102.3
2018-11 108.7 102.2 103.9 102.4
2018-12 107.3 102.4 102.0 101.8
2019-01 107.6 103.8 102.2 101.6
2019-02 108.7 105.0 100.4 101.1
2019-03 107.7 101.1 102.6 101.3
2019-04 107.2 101.7 101.0 100.8
2019-05 111.9 104.2 102.3 102.2
2019-06 108.1 99.1 100.4 100.7
2019-07 103.8 101.7 99.2 99.8

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) May 19 June 19 July 19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 112 108 104
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 104 99 102
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 110 99 103
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 110 100 99
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 98 99 102
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 102 100 99
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 100 96 90
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 102 104 106
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 102 101 100
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 115 114 116
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 99 96 98
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 99 93 92
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 103 106 105
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 99 97 95
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 107 109 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page. The sample of businesses has been renewed in July 2019.

Next issue: 27 August 2019 at 8h45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page. The sample of businesses has been renewed in July 2019.

Next issue: 27 August 2019 at 8h45

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr

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Time series : Industry - Activity and demand