Informations rapides
25 June 2019
2019
In June 2019, the business climate has deteriorated in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - June 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in June 2019, the business climate in industry has deteriorated. The composite indicator has fallen back by two points. At 102, however, it remains above its long-term average (100).

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According to the business managers surveyed in June 2019, the business climate in industry has deteriorated. The composite indicator has fallen back by two points. At 102, however, it remains above its long-term average (100).

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.2
1998-03 117.1
1998-04 115.2
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.2
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.8
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.7
1998-11 103.9
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 101.9
1999-03 96.8
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.6
1999-06 99.6
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.6
2000-03 119.9
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.3
2000-06 124.2
2000-07 121.2
2000-08 121.4
2000-09 121.1
2000-10 120.0
2000-11 118.1
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 112.9
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.6
2001-09 95.3
2001-10 94.9
2001-11 90.9
2001-12 92.3
2002-01 93.4
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.7
2002-11 96.4
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.7
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.8
2003-04 91.8
2003-05 91.5
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.6
2003-08 92.4
2003-09 92.7
2003-10 95.6
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.3
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.6
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.0
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.0
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.2
2005-02 103.0
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.0
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.0
2005-08 99.5
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 102.9
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.8
2006-08 108.4
2006-09 107.9
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.0
2007-06 111.1
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-09 110.5
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.4
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.9
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 87.0
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 73.1
2009-01 72.2
2009-02 68.2
2009-03 66.3
2009-04 70.3
2009-05 72.0
2009-06 74.7
2009-07 76.2
2009-08 80.7
2009-09 83.8
2009-10 85.0
2009-11 87.4
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.5
2010-03 91.0
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.6
2010-07 97.1
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.7
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.0
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.7
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.5
2011-12 94.6
2012-01 94.9
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.4
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 93.0
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.5
2012-10 87.0
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.7
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.6
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.7
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.1
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.2
2014-03 100.7
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.3
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.3
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.9
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.6
2015-02 98.3
2015-03 98.8
2015-04 101.4
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.6
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.3
2016-01 102.5
2016-02 102.8
2016-03 102.4
2016-04 104.6
2016-05 104.6
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.7
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 101.9
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.3
2017-01 105.7
2017-02 106.4
2017-03 105.5
2017-04 108.3
2017-05 109.1
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.3
2017-08 110.5
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 110.8
2017-11 111.7
2017-12 111.2
2018-01 113.3
2018-02 112.1
2018-03 110.5
2018-04 110.2
2018-05 110.2
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.8
2018-08 109.6
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.0
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 102.7
2019-01 102.8
2019-02 102.8
2019-03 103.4
2019-04 100.9
2019-05 104.1
2019-06 102.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19 June 19
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 103 101 104 102
Past activity 5 6 0 4 8
Finished-goods inventory 12 14 16 9 9
Overall order books -18 -11 -13 -8 -12
Export order books -14 -11 -10 -9 -17
Past workforce size -10 3 7 2 1
Expected workforce size -11 0 2 0 0
Personal production expectations 5 13 6 12 8
General production expectations -8 -1 -2 4 3
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of manufacturers’ opinion on order books drop sharply

In June 2019, the balance of opinion on export order books has sharply dropped. It has lost eight points and has moved below its long-term average, at its lowest level since October 2014. Similarly, industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has decreased. It has lost four points after a sharp rebound in the previous month, but remains above its long-term average.

Industrialists are less optimistic than in the previous month on their personal production expectations: the corresponding balance of opinion has fallen back by four points but remains above its long-term average. On the opposite, the balance of opinion on past activity has risen again and has returned above its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector as a whole is virtually stable.It stands well above its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.37
2010-02 -0.28
2010-03 0.21
2010-04 0.46
2010-05 0.41
2010-06 0.25
2010-07 0.3
2010-08 0.68
2010-09 0.89
2010-10 0.94
2010-11 -0.48
2010-12 0.67
2011-01 0.95
2011-02 0.72
2011-03 0.87
2011-04 0.75
2011-05 0.55
2011-06 0.69
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.96
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.6
2011-12 -0.81
2012-01 -0.89
2012-02 -0.64
2012-03 0.05
2012-04 -0.15
2012-05 -0.12
2012-06 -0.89
2012-07 -0.92
2012-08 0.32
2012-09 0.25
2012-10 -0.81
2012-11 0.47
2012-12 0.17
2013-01 0.07
2013-02 0.08
2013-03 -0.03
2013-04 -0.88
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.6
2013-07 0.86
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.85
2013-10 0.84
2013-11 0.29
2013-12 0.87
2014-01 0.94
2014-02 0.72
2014-03 0.94
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.6
2014-06 0.44
2014-07 0.52
2014-08 0.49
2014-09 0.63
2014-10 0.48
2014-11 0.78
2014-12 0.67
2015-01 0.64
2015-02 0.57
2015-03 0.81
2015-04 0.79
2015-05 0.64
2015-06 0.62
2015-07 0.72
2015-08 0.88
2015-09 0.8
2015-10 0.18
2015-11 0.09
2015-12 0.27
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.65
2016-03 0.62
2016-04 0.65
2016-05 0.61
2016-06 0.18
2016-07 0.31
2016-08 0.31
2016-09 0.51
2016-10 0.51
2016-11 0.55
2016-12 0.6
2017-01 0.69
2017-02 0.77
2017-03 -0.58
2017-04 0.3
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.45
2017-07 0.53
2017-08 0.64
2017-09 0.86
2017-10 0.82
2017-11 0.72
2017-12 0.76
2018-01 0.95
2018-02 0.75
2018-03 0.6
2018-04 0.62
2018-05 0.5
2018-06 0.4
2018-07 0.28
2018-08 0.43
2018-09 0.51
2018-10 0.38
2018-11 0.57
2018-12 -0.04
2019-01 0.26
2019-02 0.38
2019-03 0.43
2019-04 -0.15
2019-05 0.75
2019-06 0.48

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

In the agrofood industry, the business climate is less favourable

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has fallen back by two points. It had reached in May its highest level since December 2010. At 111, it remains well above its long-term average. This decline mainly comes from the decrease in the balance on past production and on export order books.

The business climate drops in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has lost six points. At 99, it moved below its long-term average. This decrease is mainly due to the fall in order book balances, which have reached their lowest level since autumn 2016.

The business climate has sharply dropped in the electrical equipment branch and in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. In this latter industry, it has reached its lowest level since Decembre 2014. However, it has slightly improved in machinery and equipment, recovering its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate falters slightly

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has slightly fallen back. At 101, it is a little above its long-term average (100).

The climate indicator has deteriorated in the automotive industry and has moved below its long-term average. This decline mainly comes from the decrease in oder book balances, which stand below their long-term average.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate has rebounded and therefore remains above its average.

The business climate has slightly deteriorated in « other manufacturing »

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » industry has slightly deteriorated: the corresponding balance has lost one point. At 101, it stands just above its long-term average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has declined in clothing-textiles, in basic metals, in chemicals, and in wood-paper-printing. Conversely, it has increased in the rubber and plastic industry. It is stable inthe « other manufacturing industries ».

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.0 105.0 105.0
2011-02 107.5 103.0 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.7 107.4 106.0 109.6
2011-04 108.8 105.4 105.6 109.7
2011-05 109.6 104.0 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.6 105.1 109.2 108.6
2011-07 110.9 103.2 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.5 101.1 101.6 100.1
2011-09 102.0 99.9 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.3 98.6 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.3 96.2 102.0 94.0
2011-12 98.2 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.8 96.5 94.7 93.9
2012-02 100.4 96.4 93.4 95.8
2012-03 102.1 97.0 102.7 97.0
2012-04 99.1 96.5 93.8 97.6
2012-05 93.6 95.1 94.7 95.7
2012-06 94.9 91.4 95.4 93.4
2012-07 94.8 91.1 94.9 92.2
2012-08 93.8 90.6 95.0 93.3
2012-09 96.7 91.3 96.9 93.4
2012-10 91.2 86.2 95.4 89.3
2012-11 98.4 87.5 92.6 92.2
2012-12 98.8 88.0 92.1 91.6
2013-01 97.7 88.1 92.2 91.0
2013-02 98.1 89.1 94.1 90.1
2013-03 94.0 89.3 93.6 91.0
2013-04 91.9 90.1 92.6 89.1
2013-05 91.9 90.0 94.6 91.7
2013-06 92.7 89.5 94.6 93.1
2013-07 92.4 90.1 98.6 94.9
2013-08 95.5 92.1 101.2 97.0
2013-09 95.1 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.6 90.8 103.4 97.6
2013-11 98.2 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.6 92.3 99.7 98.9
2014-01 99.6 91.8 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.1 94.4 97.8 98.1
2014-03 99.7 93.2 100.5 102.1
2014-04 95.9 93.0 102.6 99.9
2014-05 98.1 94.1 98.1 99.2
2014-06 96.0 92.2 97.9 98.3
2014-07 97.2 89.7 99.1 98.8
2014-08 95.6 93.8 97.7 100.3
2014-09 94.5 92.6 100.6 97.0
2014-10 95.8 93.0 97.0 98.3
2014-11 96.4 92.6 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.2 92.6 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.2 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.2 95.6 100.8 100.0
2015-03 100.7 94.5 105.0 99.8
2015-04 104.6 97.1 106.7 100.4
2015-05 102.4 97.6 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.3 97.5 105.0 100.6
2015-07 108.8 98.8 104.8 102.7
2015-08 103.8 97.9 107.8 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.6 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.1 98.7 107.5 99.6
2015-11 102.4 100.2 107.6 99.3
2015-12 99.8 98.5 107.5 101.3
2016-01 101.9 101.0 107.8 99.0
2016-02 99.9 101.1 108.7 99.6
2016-03 101.5 99.6 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.6 100.6 108.8 101.0
2016-05 103.9 98.2 105.9 103.8
2016-06 103.5 97.6 105.8 101.1
2016-07 104.6 98.2 105.1 101.6
2016-08 99.9 98.7 103.9 101.3
2016-09 108.4 99.0 105.0 100.4
2016-10 106.2 98.0 105.4 100.9
2016-11 107.8 100.3 102.2 101.3
2016-12 108.3 103.8 104.2 104.2
2017-01 104.2 102.7 106.4 104.9
2017-02 105.1 104.3 106.0 105.9
2017-03 104.3 105.2 105.3 104.7
2017-04 103.7 107.4 105.6 107.6
2017-05 106.8 109.5 105.4 107.3
2017-06 112.1 108.7 105.1 108.1
2017-07 108.8 109.5 108.3 106.8
2017-08 109.6 107.2 108.6 108.3
2017-09 106.7 107.8 109.3 108.4
2017-10 110.5 110.1 108.2 109.9
2017-11 112.3 110.1 109.1 111.1
2017-12 110.7 111.3 109.9 109.9
2018-01 111.5 112.8 111.8 110.4
2018-02 109.8 111.1 111.8 109.7
2018-03 109.1 110.3 111.3 109.2
2018-04 109.5 110.2 112.2 107.6
2018-05 108.9 111.8 108.0 107.9
2018-06 110.4 108.2 109.9 105.3
2018-07 107.9 108.8 106.1 106.6
2018-08 109.0 108.4 106.8 105.9
2018-09 106.5 107.7 105.0 104.8
2018-10 101.8 107.5 103.4 102.4
2018-11 108.8 102.4 104.0 102.8
2018-12 107.4 102.3 101.9 101.5
2019-01 107.7 103.4 102.1 101.4
2019-02 108.3 105.0 100.2 100.9
2019-03 107.3 100.9 102.6 101.4
2019-04 107.0 101.2 100.6 100.8
2019-05 112.6 104.7 102.3 102.5
2019-06 110.5 99.3 100.8 100.7

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Apr. 19 May 19 June 19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 107 113 111
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 101 105 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 104 110 98
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 100 110 100
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 101 99 100
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 17 101 102 101
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 93 100 97
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 105 102 104
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 101 102 101
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 112 115 113
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 98 99 97
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 9 97 99 93
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 104 103 106
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 97 99 95
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 105 108 108
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 24 July 2019 at 8h45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 24 July 2019 at 8h45

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