26 March 2019

2019- n° 80

In March 2019, the business climate rebounds sharply in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2019

According to the managers surveyed in March 2019, the business climate has significantly improved in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator has gainedeight points compared to January 2019. At 107, it stands well above its long-term average (100), under which it had fallen temporarily in January.

In March 2019, significantly more wholesalers than in January have indicated a rise in their past sales and their received merchandise over the past two months, for both total and foreign trade. The corresponding balances of opinion have bounced backsharply and stand above their long-term average. In particular, the balance about total sales over the past two months gains 16 points in March after loosing 7 points between November 2018 and January 2019.

In March, wholesalers are markedly more optimistic than in January about the general business outlook for the sector. The related balance has gained 12 points after a fall by 15 points between November and January. The balances about ordering intentions from France or abroad as well as shipments abroad have also bounced back. All these balances remain above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion concerning past employment recovers markedly, that concerning expected workforce improves very slightly. The two balances remain above their long-term average.

The balances regarding prices had dropped sharply between November 2018 and January 2019. In March, as many wholesalers as in January have declared that they expect a rise in their selling prices rather than a decrease. They are barely more to observe a rise in their past prices. The two related balances of opinion remain well below their long-term average.

Slightly more wholesalers than in January consider that their cash position is comfortable. The related balance stands above its long-term average.

In wholesale of agricultural products, the balance of opinion on past activity has fallen back while that on merchandise received from abroad and on current stock have increased.The balance related to ordering intentions over the next two months has picked up. The balances related to sales and purchasesremain below their average.

In the food wholesaling sector, almost all the balances of opinion have recovered. The balances concerning past sales and ordering intentions have returned above their average. However, the balance related to imports remains below its average level.

In wholesale of household goods, the balances of opinion are more favourable than in January. Wholesalers’ opinion about their sales has sharply improved. The corresponding balances have returned above their long term average. Wholesalers’ opinion about their past and expected purchases has also improved, albeit to a lesser extent.

In wholesale trade for this type of capital goods, the balancesof opinion about past sales, total and abroad, have rebounded sharply after a sudden drop in January. They exceed their November 2018 level. The balances of opinion regarding sales and received merchandise from abroad stand well above their average. Nevertheless, that regarding ordering intentions over the next months has stagnated in March slightly above its average.

In this sector, balances of opinion were less affected in January than in wholesale of information and communication equipment. They have also picked up, but somewhat more moderately, and stand well above their average.

In this sector, slightly more managers than in January have declared a rise in their past sales and their ordering intentions. However, they are less optimistic about their sales and purchases abroad: the balances of opinion related to imports and exports have edged down.