Informations rapides
21 February 2019
2019- n° 39
In February 2019, the business climate remains stable in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - February 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2019, the business climate in industry remains above its average. The composite indicator is stable at 103 for the third month in a row.

Informations rapides
No 39
Paru le :Paru le21/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 19/09/2025 at 08:45 - September 2025
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According to the business managers surveyed in February 2019, the business climate in industry remains above its average. The composite indicator is stable at 103 for the third month in a row.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.1
1998-03 117.0
1998-04 115.1
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.1
1998-07 113.7
1998-08 112.7
1998-09 111.9
1998-10 106.7
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.1
1999-01 101.4
1999-02 101.8
1999-03 96.7
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.5
1999-06 99.6
1999-07 105.8
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.8
1999-10 113.2
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.1
2000-01 115.6
2000-02 117.4
2000-03 119.7
2000-04 119.7
2000-05 121.1
2000-06 124.0
2000-07 121.0
2000-08 121.2
2000-09 120.9
2000-10 120.0
2000-11 118.0
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 112.8
2001-03 111.5
2001-04 107.2
2001-05 105.4
2001-06 103.8
2001-07 101.4
2001-08 98.5
2001-09 95.2
2001-10 94.8
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.2
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 94.8
2002-03 96.8
2002-04 98.3
2002-05 102.0
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.7
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.8
2003-01 97.7
2003-02 97.2
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.8
2003-05 91.4
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.7
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.5
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.4
2004-07 105.2
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.1
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 99.0
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 102.9
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 106.3
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.7
2006-08 108.3
2006-09 107.9
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.2
2007-04 111.9
2007-05 109.9
2007-06 111.0
2007-07 111.4
2007-08 110.8
2007-09 110.4
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.4
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.8
2008-09 91.4
2008-10 86.9
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 73.2
2009-01 72.1
2009-02 68.1
2009-03 66.3
2009-04 70.2
2009-05 72.1
2009-06 75.0
2009-07 76.4
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.9
2009-12 87.8
2010-01 90.5
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.4
2010-04 95.5
2010-05 97.0
2010-06 96.0
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.7
2010-09 103.1
2010-10 104.4
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.9
2011-02 107.2
2011-03 110.3
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 94.9
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.9
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-10 87.0
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.8
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.4
2013-04 87.7
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.7
2013-08 98.6
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.9
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.3
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.3
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.3
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.7
2014-07 96.3
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.9
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.2
2016-01 102.4
2016-02 102.7
2016-03 102.3
2016-04 104.6
2016-05 104.6
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.7
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 101.9
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.4
2017-01 105.7
2017-02 106.4
2017-03 105.5
2017-04 108.4
2017-05 109.2
2017-06 108.8
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.6
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 110.8
2017-11 111.8
2017-12 111.2
2018-01 113.3
2018-02 112.0
2018-03 110.4
2018-04 110.1
2018-05 110.2
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.8
2018-08 109.7
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.0
2018-11 105.5
2018-12 102.7
2019-01 102.8
2019-02 102.8

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* nov.-18 déc.-18 janv.-19 févr.-19
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 105 103 103 103
Past activity 5 13 5 7 8
Finished-goods inventory 12 9 10 8 9
Overall order books -18 -10 -13 -12 -13
Export order books -14 -10 -9 -11 -8
Past workforce size -10 -1 1 0 1
Expected workforce size -12 -1 4 0 1
Personal production expectations 5 14 11 10 6
General production expectations -8 4 -10 -11 -5
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Manufacturers are reassured about the general production prospects for the sector but are more pessimistic about their own production prospects

The balance of industrialists’ opinion on the general production prospects for the sector has significantly picked up in February, after having dropped in December, and has returned above its long-term average. It had reached in January its lowest level in four years.

The balance of opinion on past activity has slightly improved again and stands above its long-term average. Conversely, that on personal production expectations has further declined and stands closer to its long-term average.

Industrialists’ opinion on overall order books is virtually stable, while that on export order books has bounced back. The corresponding balances remain above their average.

Virtually as many industrialists as in Januaryconsider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance has been below its long-term mean since August 2016.

As regards employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected workforce size are virtually stable, significantly above their long-term average.

The turning-point indicator stands in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.37
2010-02 -0.28
2010-03 0.21
2010-04 0.46
2010-05 0.41
2010-06 0.25
2010-07 0.3
2010-08 0.68
2010-09 0.89
2010-10 0.94
2010-11 -0.48
2010-12 0.67
2011-01 0.95
2011-02 0.72
2011-03 0.79
2011-04 0.69
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 -0.65
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -0.96
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.6
2011-12 -0.81
2012-01 -0.89
2012-02 -0.64
2012-03 0.05
2012-04 -0.15
2012-05 -0.12
2012-06 -0.89
2012-07 -0.92
2012-08 0.32
2012-09 0.25
2012-10 -0.81
2012-11 0.47
2012-12 0.17
2013-01 0.07
2013-02 0.08
2013-03 -0.03
2013-04 -0.88
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.6
2013-07 0.86
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.85
2013-10 0.84
2013-11 0.29
2013-12 0.87
2014-01 0.94
2014-02 0.72
2014-03 0.94
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.6
2014-06 0.44
2014-07 0.52
2014-08 0.49
2014-09 0.63
2014-10 0.48
2014-11 0.78
2014-12 0.67
2015-01 0.64
2015-02 0.57
2015-03 0.81
2015-04 0.79
2015-05 0.64
2015-06 0.62
2015-07 0.72
2015-08 0.88
2015-09 0.8
2015-10 0.18
2015-11 0.09
2015-12 0.27
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.65
2016-03 0.62
2016-04 0.65
2016-05 0.61
2016-06 0.18
2016-07 0.31
2016-08 0.31
2016-09 0.51
2016-10 0.51
2016-11 0.55
2016-12 0.6
2017-01 0.69
2017-02 0.77
2017-03 -0.58
2017-04 0.3
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.45
2017-07 0.53
2017-08 0.64
2017-09 0.86
2017-10 0.82
2017-11 0.72
2017-12 0.76
2018-01 0.95
2018-02 0.75
2018-03 0.6
2018-04 0.62
2018-05 0.5
2018-06 0.4
2018-07 0.28
2018-08 0.43
2018-09 0.51
2018-10 0.38
2018-11 0.57
2018-12 -0.04
2019-01 0.26
2019-02 0.38

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

In the agrofood industry, the business climate improves slightly

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages has improved by one point again in February. At 109, it stands largely above its long-term average (100). This improvement mainly comes from the increase in the balance on export order books.

The business climate continues to improve in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has improved again and risen by two points in February. It had sharply fallen in November. At 105,it stands well above its long-term average. This improvement comes from the increase in the balances on overall and export order books.

The business climate is much more favourable than in January in the electrical equipment industry. It is stable in machinery and equipment, at its long-term average level. However, it has slightly fallenback in the computer, electronic and optical product industry, while remaining far above its long-term average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has fallen back to its average

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has slightly deteriorated and has returned to its long-term average (100).

The climate indicator has sharply decreased in the automotive industry and now stands well below its long-term averge. This decrease mainly comes from the decline in the balance on overall order books.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, on the opposite, the business climate has improved slightly.

The business climate is stable in « other manufacturing »

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » industry is stable. At 101, it remains slightly above its long-term average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has slightly increased in wood-paper, rubber and plastic products and in the « other manufacturing industries ». Conversely, it has declined in clothing-textiles, chemicals and basic metals.In the two latter subsectors, it now stands below its long-term average, as in wood-paper.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 104.9 105.0 105.1
2011-02 107.7 103.0 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.9 107.3 106.0 109.6
2011-04 109.0 105.4 105.6 109.7
2011-05 109.7 104.0 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.7 105.0 109.2 108.6
2011-07 111.0 103.1 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.7 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 102.0 100.0 98.7 97.9
2011-10 104.5 98.6 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.3 96.3 102.0 94.0
2011-12 98.2 96.7 99.9 94.4
2012-01 99.9 96.6 94.8 94.0
2012-02 100.5 96.6 93.5 95.8
2012-03 102.3 97.0 102.7 97.1
2012-04 99.3 96.5 93.8 97.7
2012-05 93.8 95.2 94.7 95.7
2012-06 95.0 91.5 95.5 93.5
2012-07 94.9 91.2 95.0 92.2
2012-08 94.0 90.7 95.1 93.4
2012-09 96.9 91.4 96.9 93.4
2012-10 91.4 86.3 95.5 89.3
2012-11 98.7 87.6 92.6 92.2
2012-12 99.1 88.0 92.2 91.7
2013-01 97.9 88.2 92.3 91.1
2013-02 98.1 89.2 94.1 90.2
2013-03 94.1 89.4 93.7 91.1
2013-04 92.1 90.2 92.7 89.2
2013-05 91.9 90.0 94.7 91.7
2013-06 92.8 89.6 94.7 93.1
2013-07 92.4 90.1 98.7 94.9
2013-08 95.8 92.1 101.3 97.0
2013-09 95.2 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.7 90.8 103.4 97.7
2013-11 98.5 93.0 101.8 98.6
2013-12 98.9 92.3 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.7 91.7 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.3 94.4 97.8 98.2
2014-03 99.9 93.2 100.5 102.1
2014-04 96.0 93.1 102.6 99.9
2014-05 98.3 94.2 98.1 99.3
2014-06 96.1 92.3 97.9 98.3
2014-07 97.3 89.8 99.2 98.8
2014-08 95.7 93.9 97.7 100.3
2014-09 94.6 92.6 100.7 97.0
2014-10 95.8 93.1 97.1 98.4
2014-11 96.4 92.6 100.0 99.6
2014-12 99.3 92.6 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.4 93.9 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.5 95.7 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.6 94.6 105.0 99.8
2015-04 104.6 97.2 106.7 100.4
2015-05 102.5 97.7 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.5 97.6 105.0 100.6
2015-07 109.0 98.9 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.8 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.5 96.7 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.2 98.8 107.5 99.7
2015-11 102.5 100.2 107.6 99.4
2015-12 99.9 98.5 107.5 101.3
2016-01 101.9 101.0 107.8 99.0
2016-02 100.0 101.2 108.6 99.7
2016-03 101.6 99.7 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.7 100.6 108.8 101.0
2016-05 104.2 98.1 105.9 103.8
2016-06 103.6 97.6 105.8 101.1
2016-07 104.7 98.2 105.1 101.6
2016-08 99.9 98.7 103.9 101.3
2016-09 108.5 99.0 105.0 100.4
2016-10 106.3 98.0 105.4 100.9
2016-11 107.9 100.2 102.3 101.3
2016-12 108.2 103.8 104.2 104.2
2017-01 104.3 102.8 106.4 104.9
2017-02 105.2 104.3 106.0 105.9
2017-03 104.4 105.2 105.3 104.7
2017-04 103.8 107.4 105.6 107.6
2017-05 106.7 109.5 105.4 107.2
2017-06 112.1 108.6 105.1 108.1
2017-07 108.7 109.4 108.3 106.7
2017-08 109.7 107.1 108.6 108.3
2017-09 106.4 107.7 109.2 108.4
2017-10 110.5 110.0 108.2 109.9
2017-11 112.7 110.0 109.1 111.0
2017-12 110.8 111.2 109.9 109.9
2018-01 111.4 112.6 111.8 110.4
2018-02 109.7 111.0 111.7 109.7
2018-03 109.2 110.3 111.2 109.2
2018-04 109.6 110.1 112.1 107.5
2018-05 109.0 111.8 108.0 107.8
2018-06 110.2 108.2 109.9 105.3
2018-07 107.9 108.8 106.1 106.6
2018-08 109.2 108.3 106.8 105.8
2018-09 106.5 107.7 105.0 104.8
2018-10 101.9 107.4 103.4 102.3
2018-11 109.0 102.3 104.0 102.8
2018-12 107.5 102.3 101.9 101.5
2019-01 107.7 103.4 102.1 101.4
2019-02 108.8 105.1 100.3 100.9

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) déc.-18 janv.-19 févr.-19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 107 108 109
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 102 103 105
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 111 112 110
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 97 101 105
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 100 100 100
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 17 102 102 100
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 98 98 92
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 104 104 106
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 102 101 101
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 110 112 111
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 94 94 97
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 9 102 101 98
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 101 102 103
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 99 99 98
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 104 102 104
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 8h45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 8h45

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