21 December 2018

2018- n° 336

In December 2018, the business climate has edged down in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - December 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in December 2018, the business climate in industry has slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month. It has edged down by one point and has returned to its October level after a slight rebound in November. At 104, it remains above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Manufacturers are significantly less optimistic about the general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has dropped below its average in December. It is at its lowest level since January 2015.

The balance of industrialists' opinion on their past activity has fallen back. That on their personal production expectations has declined too, after having gradually increased in the two previous months. Both balances remain nevertheless above their long-term average.

Industrialists report virtually stable overall and export orders books. Both corresponding balances remain above their long-term average.

Virtually as many industrialists as in November consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance remains below its long-term mean.

As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has slightly decreased again, that on expected workforce size has bounced back. Both balances remain well above their long-term average.

After having significantly increased in November, the business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable in December. At 109, it stands well above its long-term average (100). The decrease in the balance on general prospects is offset by the increase in the balances on past and future activity.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable after having declined sharply in November. At 102, it remains slightly above its long-term average (100). The decrease in the balance on future activity is to a large extent offset by the increase in that on overall order books.

The business climate has significantly improved in the computer, electronic and optical product industry. Conversely, it has deteriorated slightly in machinery and equipment and, more noticeably, in the electrical equipment industry, where it has fallen below its average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate is stable in December. At 104, it stands above its long-term average (100). The increase in the balance on future activity is practically offset by the decrease in the balance on general production prospects, in particular in the motor industry.

The business climate indicator has slightly recovered in the manufacture of other transport equipment while it has edged down in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, just below its average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate has declined by one point, to 102. This deterioration mainly comes from the decrease in the balance on past activity.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has picked up in clothing-textiles, and, to a lesser extent, in chemicals and in the “other manufacturing industries”. However, it has fallen in rubber and plastic products, in wood-paper and in basic metals. In both last subsectors, the business climate has fallen below its long-term average.