26 October 2018
2018- n° 281In October 2018, developers' opinion on demand for new dwellings deteriorates sharply Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2018
In October 2018, far fewer developers than in July deem that the demand for new dwellings is high. The corresponding balance has decreased again and has deviated further from its long-term average.
In October 2018, far fewer developers than in July deem that the demand for new dwellings is high. The corresponding balance has decreased again and has deviated further from its long-term average.
Prospects for housing starts darken
In October 2018, the outlook for housing starts for the next three months has worsened. The corresponding balance has slipped back and has returned below its long-term average. This drop is mostly due to a sharp downturn in expected housing starts for rent. After bouncing back sharply in July, the corresponding balance has practically fallen back to its average. In comparison, the balance on housing starts for sale is virtually stable and remains slightly above its long-term average. At the same time, many more developers than in July 2018 have indicated an increase in unsold dwelling stocks. The corresponding balance has increased again, more largely than in July. It stands well above its long-term average.
Decline in the balances of opinion about the financing for housing purchases
Almost as many developers as in July have indicated a rise in the average price of new dwellings for sale: the corresponding balance of opinion stands at a lower level than early year but remains above its average. About house-purchase financing, slightly fewer developers than in July consider that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has increased during the last few months; the balance has returned to its long-term average. Likewise, fewer developers think that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will increase over the next quarter, the balance also returning to its long-term average.
tableauTable1 – Real-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | Jan. 18 | April 18 | July 18 | Oct. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | –9 | –12 | –8 | –11 | –22 |
| Expected housing starts | –7 | –11 | –10 | –4 | –9 |
| - for sale | –15 | –12 | –16 | –12 | –13 |
| - for rent | 0 | –8 | 0 | 12 | 1 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | –26 | –21 | –29 | –26 | –17 |
| Housing average price for sale | 5 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 9 |
| Downpayment | –20 | –11 | –12 | –18 | –20 |
| Financing capacity | –21 | –17 | –16 | –16 | –21 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
graphiqueGraph1 – New dwelling demand tendency
Pour en savoir plus
