26 October 2018
2018- n° 280In October 2018, households' confidence is virtually stable Monthly consumer confidence survey - October 2018
In October 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has been virtually stable: the synthetic index has gained 1 point. However, it still remains below its long term average (100).
- Personal situation
- Expected and past personal financial situations: status quo
- Current and expected saving capacity: slight improvement
- Economic situation in France
- Future standard of living in France: clear rise
- Unemployment: fears decreasing again
- Perceived and expected inflation: opinion remains virtually unchanged
In October 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has been virtually stable: the synthetic index has gained 1 point. However, it still remains below its long term average (100).
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Expected and past personal financial situations: status quo
In October, households' opinion concerning their future financial situation has remained virtually unchanged: the corresponding balance has been stable and remains below its long term average. Household's balance of opinion on their past personal situation has also been stable and stands below its long term average.
The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has been virtually stable. The corresponding balance stands above its long term average since January 2016.
Current and expected saving capacity: slight improvement
In October, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity has increased: the corresponding balance has picked up by 2 points and now stands above its long term average. Households' opinion balance on their current saving capacity has increased by 2 points too. Hence, it remains above its long term average.
However, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has slightly decreased. The corresponding balance has lost 1 point, and stands further below its long term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Economic situation in France
Future standard of living in France: clear rise
In October, the share of households considering that the future standard of living in France will improve in the next twelve months has clearly increased: the corresponding balance has bounced back (+5 points after –6 points in September), but still stands below its long term average.
However, households' opinion about the past standard of living in France has declined again: the corresponding balance has lost 3 points and stands further below its long term average.
Unemployment: fears decreasing again
Households' fears about the unemployment trend have strongly decreased in October: the corresponding balance has lost 12 points, after loosing 4 points in September. It stands well below its long term average.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
Perceived and expected inflation: opinion remains virtually unchanged
In October, households considering that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months have been slightly more numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance has gained 1 point and stands slightly above its long term average. Likewise, households have been more numerous than the previous month to think that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance, which was already well above its long term average, has gained 1 point.
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| Avg. (1) | July 18 | August 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 97 | 96 | 94 | 95 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –28 | –29 | –30 | –30 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –11 | –12 | –16 | –16 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –1 | –5 | –9 | –7 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 17 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 5 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –8 | –8 | –7 | –8 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –46 | –46 | –48 | –51 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –31 | –29 | –35 | –30 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 34 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 5 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –17 | –25 | –26 | –15 | –14 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –20 | –21 | –16 | –15 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
- (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2017).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
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