24 October 2018

2018- n° 273

In October 2018, the business climate has further weakened in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2018, the business climate in industry has further deteriorated compared to the previous month. The composite indicator has decreased again by three points. At 104, it remains however well above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balance of industrialists' opinion on their past activity has dropped again, more significantly in October than in September. That on their personal production expectations is virtually stable, after having sharply fallen in September. Both balances remain above their long-term average.

Optimism among manufacturers about the general production prospects for the sector persists. The corresponding balance, virtually stable, stands well above its average. However, industrialists report fewer orders: the balance of opinion on overall order books has dropped significantly, that on export order books has fallen more moderately. Both remain above their long-term average.

More industrialists than in September consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance has slightly increased while remaining below its long-term mean.

As regards employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected workforce size have slightly decreased. They remain however well above their long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator has declined again losing three points in October. At 104, it remains above its long-term average (100). This fall mainly comes from the decrease in the balance on overall order books.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable, at 108, well above its long-term average (100). The increase in the balance on personal production expectations is offset by the decrease in the balances on past activity and on overall order books.

The business climate has further improved in the computer, electronic and optical product industry. By contrast, it is less favourable than in September in the electrical equipment industry. It is stable and close to its average in machinery and equipment.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has decreased by three extra points. At 102, it has come closer to its long-term average (100). This deterioration mainly comes from the decline in the balance on overall order books, in particular in the motor industry.

The business climate indicator has sharply declined in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers: it has fallen below its long term average and has reached its lowest level since 2014. It is stable in the manufacture of other transport equipment.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is once again less favourable than in the previous month the corresponding indicator has gone down by 2 points, to 103. This new dip mainly comes from the decrease in the balances on overall and export order books.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has fallen in in wood-paper. To a lesser extent, it has decreased also in rubber and plastic products, in chemicals, in basic metals and in clothing-textiles. However, it has significantly picked up in the “other manufacturing industries”.