26 September 2018
2018- n° 254In September 2018, households' confidence drops again Monthly consumer confidence survey - September 2018
In September 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached its lowest level since April 2016. It remains below its long term average (100).
In September 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached its lowest level since April 2016. It remains below its long term average (100).
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Expected personal financial situation: deterioration
In September, households have been less optimistic concerning their future financial situation: the corresponding balance has lost 5 points and deviated from its long term average. Household's balance of opinion on their past personal situation has been stable and stands below its long term average.
The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has been virtually stable. The corresponding balance stands above its long term average since January 2016.
Expected saving capacity: sharp decline
In September, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has declined sharply. The corresponding balance has lost 6 points, deviating from its long term average.
Likewise, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity kept deteriorating: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points, i.e. as much as in August. It now stands at its long term average. Households' opinion balance on their current saving capacity remained virtually unchanged and stands slightly above its long term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Economic situation in France
Future standard of living in France: strong degradation
In September, households opinion about the past standard of living in France has declined again: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points and hit its lowest level since May 2017. The share of households considering that the future standard of living in France will improve in the next twelve months has sharply declined: the corresponding balance has lost 7 points and stands below its long term average.
Unemployment: fears decreasing
Households' fears about the unemployment trend have decreased in September: the corresponding balance lost 4 points, after gaining 8 points in August. It remains below its long term average.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
Perceived and expected inflation: strong rise
In September, households considering that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months have been clearly more numerous than the previous month. The corresponding balance has gained 11 points and now settles above its long term average. Households have also been more numerous than the previous month to think that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance, which is already above its long term average, has gained 4 points.
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
Due to the actualisation of the seasonal adjustment coefficients, the synthetic index of August 2018 was revised downwards by one point: it now stands at 96.
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| Avg. (1) | June 18 | July 18 | August 18 | Sept. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 97 | 97 | 96 | 94 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –27 | –28 | –30 | –30 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –13 | –11 | –12 | –17 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –9 | –1 | –5 | –9 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 17 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –9 | –7 | –8 | –7 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –44 | –45 | –46 | –48 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –32 | –31 | –29 | –36 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 34 | 16 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –17 | –25 | –25 | –26 | –15 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –20 | –21 | –21 | –17 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
- (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2017).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
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