25 September 2018

2018- n° 248

In September 2018, the business climate deteriorates in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2018, the business climate in industry has deteriorated compared to August. The composite indicator has decreased by three points. At 107, it remains however well above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balance of industrialists' opinion on their personal production expectations has dropped again, more significantly in September than in August. That on past activity has moderately fallen back. Both balances remain above their long-term average.

Manufacturers are slightly less optimistic about the general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has slightly fallen back. The balance of opinion on overall and export order books, virtually stable, remain well above their long-term average.

Fewer industrialists than in August consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance has receded from its long-term mean.

As regards employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected workforce size are stable or virtually stable, well above their long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator has declined by three points in September. At 106, it remains above its long-term average (100). This fall mainly comes from the decrease in the balance on past activity.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has decreased again by one point, to 107, while remaining well above its long-term average. This dip is due to the decrease in the balance on export order books.

The business climate is less favourable than in August in machinery and equipment and is stable in the electrical equipment industry. By contrast, it has improved in the computer, electronic and optical product industry.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has decreased by two points. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100). This deterioration mainly comes from the decline in the balances on personal production expectations and on overall order books, in particular in the motor industry.

The business climate indicator has declined in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, while it has slightly recovered in the manufacture of other transport equipment. In both cases, the climate remains above average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is slightly less favourable. The composite indicator has gone down again by 1 point, at 105. This slight dip mainly comes from the decrease in the balances on overall and export order books.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has fallen in rubber and plastic products, in the “other manufacturing industries”, in basic metals and in wood-paper. It is stable in chemicals and has increased slightly in clothing-textiles.