23 August 2018

2018- n° 216

In August 2018, the business climate rebounds slightly in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - August 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2018, the business climate in industry has slightly improved compared to July. The composite indicator has increased by one point and is back to its June level. At 110, it is well above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator stands in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balance of industrialists' opinion on past activity, already above its long-term average, has significantly increased. That on personal production expectations has sharply dropped but remains well above its long-term average.

Manufacturers remain considerably less optimistic than at the beginning of the year about the general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance, however, has increased by one point in August. The balance of opinion on overall order books has slightly picked up while that on export order books has been declining since May. The corresponding balances remain well above their long-term average.

More industrialists than in July consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance is close to its long-term mean.

As regards employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected workforce size are virtually stable, well above their long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate indicator has slightly improved in August (+1 point). At 109, it far exceeds its long-term average (100). This improvement mainly comes from an increase in the balances on past activity and on overall and export order books.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has decreased by one point, at 108, while remaining well above its long-term average. This dip is attributable to the decrease in the balances on overall and export order books.

The business climate is less favourable than in July in machinery and equipment and in the computer, electronic and optical product industry. By contrast, it has further improved in the electrical equipment industry.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has increased by one point. At 107, it is well above its long-term average (100). This improvement mainly comes from the increase in the balance on past activity, in particular in the motor industry.

The business climate indicator has recovered in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers ; it is virtually stable in the manufacture of other transport equipment. In both cases, the climate is above average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is slightly less favourable. The composite indicator has edged down by 1 point. This slight dip mainly comes from the decrease in the balances on personal production expectations and on export order books.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has slightly fallen in chemicals and in the “other manufacturing industries”. It is stable in rubber and plastic products and basic metals and has increased in wood-paper, clothing-textiles.