26 July 2018
2018- n° 198In July 2018, households' confidence levelled off Monthly consumer confidence survey - July 2018
In July 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation was stable: the synthetic index remained at 97. Thus, it stands below its long term average (100) for the third consecutive month.
In July 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation was stable: the synthetic index remained at 97. Thus, it stands below its long term average (100) for the third consecutive month.
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Expected personal financial situation: improving slightly
In July, households' balances of opinion on their expected personal situation has improved slightly (+2 points) while the one on their past financial situation remained stable. Both balances stand below their long term average.
The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases was virtually stable. The corresponding balance stands above its long term average.
Expected saving capacity: clear rise
In July, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity increased clearly: it gained 7 points after losing 4 in June, and is above its long term average. The balance on their current saving capacity was unchanged and remains slightly above its long term average.
The share of households considering it a suitable time to save has been virtually stable in July. Thus, the corresponding balance clearly remains below its long term average.
Economic situation in France
Standard of living in France: opinion balances were virtually stable
In July, households have been almost as numerous as in June to consider that the past standard of living in France improved during the past twelve months: the corresponding balance has lost 1 point and returned to its long term average. Likewise, households have been almost as numerous as in June to consider that the future standard of living in France will improve in the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has gained 1 point, but remains below its long term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Unemployment: fears decreasing slightly
Households' fears about the unemployment trend have diminished slightly in July: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points, after increasing by 14 points in June. The corresponding balance stays clearly below its long term average.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
Inflation: opinion balances almost unchanged
In July, households were almost as numerous as in the previous month to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months and to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: both balances have lost 1 point.
However, the first balance of opinion stands below its long term average whereas the second one stands above.
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| Avg. (1) | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | July 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 100 | 99 | 97 | 97 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –26 | –25 | –27 | –27 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –12 | –12 | –13 | –11 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –9 | –4 | –8 | –1 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 17 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –4 | –5 | –9 | –8 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –36 | –40 | –44 | –45 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –23 | –27 | –31 | –30 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 34 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 13 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –17 | –38 | –30 | –26 | –27 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –26 | –19 | –20 | –21 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
- (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2017).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
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