26 October 2016
2016- n° 278In October 2016, households' confidence improves slightly Monthly consumer confidence survey - October 2016
In October 2016, households' confidence has improved slightly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 1 point, and now stands at 98. It has returned to its level of May 2016, the highest since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).
In October 2016, households' confidence has improved slightly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 1 point, and now stands at 98. It has returned to its level of May 2016, the highest since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Futur financial situation: improving
In October, households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months has improved: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points, returning to its level of December 2015. Thus, it has moved closer to its long-term average. The balance of opinion on their personal financial situation in the past twelve months is stable, slightly below its long-term average.
The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases has grown a litlle again. The corresponding balance has gained 1 point and stands above its long-term average.
Saving capacity: downturn
In October, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity has lost 3 points and has gone back below its long-term average. The balance concerning their expected saving capacity holds steady, slightly above its long-term average.
The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save has declined as well ((3 points). The balance stands clearly below its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Economic situation in France
Standard of living in France: rising optimism
In October, household's opinion of the future standard of living in France has improved again: the corresponding balance has gained 2 points and has moved closer to its long-term average. The one of the past standard of living is virtually stable (+1 point) and remains below its long-term average.
Unemployment: sharp increase in fears
After a slight dip in September, households' fears about unemployement have surged sharply in October. The corresponding balance has increased by 10 points and has gone back above its long-term average.
Perceived and expected inflation: falling
In October, households are less numerous than in September to consider that prices increased during the past twelve months. The corresponding balance has lost 6 points and has fallen back to its level of August 2016. Therefore, it remains far below its long-term average. Likewise, households are less numerous to consider that prices are likely to increase during the next 12 months: the balance has lost 2 points, and has also returned to its level of August, below its long-term-average.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Av. (1) | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 96 | 97 | 97 | 98 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –28 | –22 | –23 | –23 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –10 | –10 | –10 | –7 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –11 | –9 | –7 | –7 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | –2 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –15 | –8 | –10 | –6 | –5 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –52 | –53 | –54 | –53 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –31 | –34 | –31 | –29 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 35 | 27 | 34 | 31 | 41 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –14 | –52 | –53 | –47 | –53 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –38 | –37 | –35 | –37 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
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