The Impact of Low Emission Zones on Vehicles Fleet: Evidence from France

This paper examines the effects of Low-Emission Zones (LEZs) on vehicle fleet composition and car market dynamics in France. We find that LEZs encourage the early replacement of older and more polluting vehicles with cleaner alternatives. This effect, however, remains small relative to the natural renewal of the fleet, as older vehicles gradually become obsolete and are replaced by newer ones. Adjustments occur primarily at the point of purchase, rather than through accelerated scrappage or earlier vehicle replacement. Anticipatory responses are pronounced, reflecting forward-looking behavior in a context of early policy announcements, despite limited enforcement.