Insee Première · June 2026 · n° 2108

Population projections for 2070: an older and most likely smaller population than in 2026

In 2070, if recent demographic trends continued, France would have 65.9 million inhabitants, 3.2 million fewer than in 2026. The population would increase slightly until 2037, reaching 69.8 million inhabitants. This population growth would be entirely due to net migration, as the natural balance turned negative from 2025 onwards. From 2037 onwards, net migration would no longer offset the natural decline, and the population would therefore begin to fall.

By 2070, the number of people under 45 is expected to fall by 8.9 million, whilst the number of those aged 45-64 is expected to remain virtually stable and the number of those aged 65 or over is expected to rise by 5.8 million. The increase in the number of older people is expected to be driven mainly by the rise in the number of those aged 80 or over (+4.6 million); the number of centenarians could quadruple.

By 2040, there would be 49 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64, compared with the current 40 per 100 in 2026. Between 2040 and 2070, the trend in this old‑age dependency ratio is more uncertain; according to the baseline scenario, it would stand at 62 per 100.

The ageing of the population is certain, but the decline in the total population is only likely: by 2070, there could be between 61 and 71 million people in France, depending on whether the assumptions regarding fertility or net migration are set lower or higher.