The french automotive industry between 2010 and 2023 : Anatomy of a fall

Between 2010 and 2023, employment among automobile manufacturers declined by 35 percent, while it remained broadly stable in the rest of the manufacturing sector. We document a concomitant contraction among upstream industrial suppliers using two firm-level surveys conducted in 2010 and 2023 that identify these firms. As a result of firm closures, exits from the automotive supply chain, and workforce reductions among firms that remained suppliers over the period, employment among industrial suppliers fell by 32 percent. This decline affected nearly all territories and was evenly distributed across occupational categories. Suppliers with greater dependence on the automotive industry experienced more pronounced employment losses over the period and faced a higher likelihood of exit. Their capacity to diversify into alternative markets remained limited, particularly among those most exposed to automobile manufacturers. During the 2000s, a substantial number of suppliers began exporting to countries hosting production facilities of major French automobile manufacturers. However, this outward expansion did not continue between 2010 and 2023, as suppliers opened few foreign affiliates in these markets. Finally, a large share of suppliers has already integrated into the electric vehicle value chain, although nearly one-third of firms remain exclusively dependent on internal combustion engine vehicle production.