Insee Première · October 2025 · n° 2078

700 000 more seniors living with loss of autonomy by 2050

In 2021, among the 18 million people aged 60 or over living in France, more than 2 million had lost their autonomy, including one third living with severe loss of autonomy. In a median demographic and health trajectory, the number of seniors with loss of autonomy would increase until the 2050s to approach 2.8 million. This is a direct consequence of population ageing – with seniors becoming both more numerous and on average older – mitigated by improvements in health status at a given age. The population of seniors with loss of autonomy would increase in two phases until the 2050s: sharply until the early 2030s, more slowly thereafter. Beyond that point, it would stabilise and begin a slight decline until the 2070s.

Between 2021 and the 2050s, the increase would be more pronounced in western France, in Île‑de‑France excluding Paris, and in overseas departments. These territories, younger in 2021 than those in central or northeastern France, would experience both population ageing and the arrival of seniors from metropolitan areas and northeastern France.